OTC: MMS estimates gulf production by 2016

May 1, 2007
Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast at up to 2.1 million b/d by 2016 compared with current levels of 1.35-1.4 million b/d, the US Minerals Management Service said May 1 at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston.

By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, May 1 -- Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast at up to 2.1 million b/d by 2016 compared with current levels of 1.35-1.4 million b/d, the US Minerals Management Service said May 1 at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston.

Total gulf oil production is expected to exceed 1.7 million b/d, a projection based on existing shallow and deepwater operator commitments. If announced discoveries and undiscovered resources realize their full potential, production could reach 2.1 million b/d.

Natural gas production is forecast to recover in the next 3 years to a possible high of 8.3 bcfd compared with 8 bcfd today, the MMS said in its "Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Production Forecast: 2007-16."

Activity used for the forecast included 16 deepwater projects scheduled to come on stream by Dec. 31. Independence Hub, expected to start gas production during the second half of 2007, is forecast to be the biggest single contributor to gas production.

Independence Hub involves a consortium of companies to gather gas from seven deepwater fields. Anadarko Petroleum Corp. is the operator.

History
Oil production in the gulf increased steadily during 1991-2001, leveled off through 2003, and declined in 2004-05—caused in part by hurricane activity.

Shallow-water production declined steadily since 1997 but was offset by increasing deepwater oil production during most of that time. MMS defines deep water as more than 1,000 ft of water.

Gas production has followed a similar trend, but increasing deepwater gas production was not sufficient to prevent an overall decline in total gulf gas production during 2006, MMS said.