MARKET WATCHOil prices rise on uncertainty about OPEC production

Oct. 6, 2006
Crude futures prices rose Oct. 5 upon media reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has an informal agreement to cut production. But there was no official confirmation of those reports.

By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Oct. 6 -- Crude futures prices rose Oct. 5 upon media reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has an informal agreement to cut production. But there was no official confirmation of those reports.

Nigerian Oil Minister Edmund Daukoru, OPEC president, said there was no informal agreement among members. His comment came amid reports from anonymous sources within OPEC that the cartel would trim its daily production by 1 million b/d (OGJ Online, Oct. 5, 2006).

Daukoru said OPEC members were considering the possibility of holding an emergency meeting before its scheduled Dec. 14 meeting.

In other news, the United Nations Security Council is slated next week to discuss a resolution that would impose sanctions on Iran for refusing to suspend its uranium enrichment program. Some traders worry that Iran might retaliate by taking oil off the market.

Natural gas prices on Oct. 5 marked a 5-week high, gaining 30.3¢ to $6.298/MMbtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 73 bcf gas storage injection for the week ended Sept. 29 compared with a 77 bcf injection for the previous week, a 44 bcf injection last year, and the 5-year average injection of 68 bcf.

The year-over-year storage surplus rose to 398 bcf, and the 5-year average storage surplus increased to 366 bcf. Supplies are now at 3.3 tcf vs. 2.9 tcf last year.

"Given overall market dynamics so far this week, we estimate the EIA to report a 70-80 bcf injection into storage next week," said Ronald J. Barone, managing director of UBS Securities LLC. "Given current weather forecasts and year-earlier injection comparisons, we expect the year-over-year surplus will be in the 400-425 bcf range by the middle of October."

Energy prices
The November contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes on NYMEX rose 62¢, settling at $60.03/bbl. The December contract climbed 60¢ to $61.34/bbl.

On the US spot market, West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Okla., climbed 6.62¢ to $66.04/bbl. Unleaded gasoline for November delivery rose by 1.87¢ to $1.5165/gal on NYMEX. Heating oil for the same month gained 1.5¢ to close at $1.6920/gal.

In London, the November IPE contract for North Sea Brent rose by 78¢ to $60/bbl. The October gas contract gained $13.50 to $537.75/tonne.

The average price for OPEC's basket of 11 benchmark crudes rose by 97¢ to $55.07/bbl.