By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Sept. 20 -- The global crude slate will become heavier and slightly sweeter during 2006-11, predicts the International Energy Agency, Paris.
Global average crude will move to 32.5° gravity from 32.7° during the period, IEA says in its September Oil Market Report. A lightening of crude from the Middle East and Russia will be offset by heavier production elsewhere. Global average sulfur content of crude supply will decline to 1.16% from 1.18%.
IEA's analysis covered crude oil and condensate and excluded NGLs, biofuels, transport fuel blending components, and refinery processing gains. It used production capacities of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rather than actual production.
In the Middle East, which accounts for 36% of an expected 9.6 million b/d supply increase through 2011, crude lightens to 34.1° from 34.0° gravity while dropping to 1.73% sulfur from 1.78%.
The quality changes come mainly from new condensate streams, especially in Qatar and Iran, and Saudi Arabia's attempt to boost supply of Arab Light crude at the expense of heavier and sourer grades, IEA says.
The most improvement in projected quality in IEA's analysis occurs in the former Soviet Union, where average crude will rise to 34.3° from 33.7° gravity while sulfur content drops to 1.15% from 1.28%.
While Russian Urals crude moderates the effect, the improvement will come from Azeri crude and Shah Deniz liquids off Azerbaijan, production from Russia's Sakhalin projects, and supply from Kazakhstan's Karachaganak and Kashagan fields.
Oil supply will sweeten slightly to 0.35% sulfur in Africa and to 1.07% in Latin America by 2011, IEA says. But production becomes heavier by 0.7-0.8° gravity in each region to 35.4° gravity in Africa and 25.5° gravity in Latin America. Driving the quality changes are increased deepwater production off Angola and Brazil.
Like its production, the Asia-Pacific region's crude quality will change little, averaging 34° gravity and 0.18% sulfur.
North American supply will degrade to 27.7° gravity in 2011 from 27.0° in 2006 and to 1.60% sulfur from 1.54%. Growing production from Canadian oil sands is the main reason.
Supply from the North Sea will move to 35.8° gravity from 35.4° in IEA's study period. Sulfur content will rise to 0.38% in 2008 but return in 2011 to its 2006 level of 0.37%.
