By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Aug. 11 -- While the possible loss of 400,000 b/d of crude oil supply from Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska captures attention and roils markets, a larger disruption continues in Nigeria.
There, notes the International Energy Agency, sabotage and accidents in traditional producing areas of the Niger Delta are offsetting production gains from deepwater fields.
In its August Oil Market Report, IEA says "shuttered" Nigerian production peaked at 785,000 b/d in July before receding to 750,000 b/d by the beginning of August. The country's average production in July was 2.26 million b/d, IEA says. Output was 2.5 million b/d as recently as late 2005.
Disruptions in July, according to IEA, include:
-- Continuing shut-ins along Royal Dutch Shell PLC's Bonny and Forcados systems of 360,000 b/d because of attacks on surface facilities by militant groups.
-- Shut-in of Shell's offshore EA platform near the Forcados terminal of 115,000 b/d (OGJ, Feb. 27, 2006, p. 28).
-- A July 21 accidental pipeline rupture that forced a 180,000 b/d cut in production of Bonny crude.
-- Associated product cuts by Chevron Corp. of 25,000 b/d.
-- Production closures since 2003 by Chevron of 70,000 b/d.
-- An attack on the Ogbainbiri pumping station operated by a subsidiary of Eni SPA, which shut in 35,000 b/d of production in late July. Flow resumed early in August.
Before its July pipeline accident, Shell said it didn't expect to restart much of its 475,000 b/d of lost output until early next year or possibly not before presidential elections in April 2007, IEA reported.
Deepwater production so far hasn't been hurt by the attacks plaguing onshore output. New deepwater projects are coming on stream in a trend that IEA says "may well continue, with rising deepwater supply providing an offset to sporadic attacks on facilities nearer the coast and onshore."
But it adds: "Such a scenario likely undermines plans for production capacity to reach 2.9-3 million b/d by 2007."
