By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Feb. 15 -- Natural gas reserves in the US Rocky Mountain region are expected to exceed 130 tcf by 2030 if growth continues at the rate indicated by 30 years of statistics, energy consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said.
Rocky Mountain volumes currently account for more than 31% of Lower 48 proved gas reserves, WoodMac said in a report entitled "The Rockies—Plenty of gas left in the tank."
The US Energy Information Administration reported Rocky Mountain proved gas reserves increased to 57.5 tcf at yearend 2004 from 19 tcf in 1977.
Of the increase, 90% came from extensions and revisions, predominantly in three states: Wyoming, western New Mexico, and Colorado, WoodMac said, calling the region "the growth play for US domestic gas supply."
The analysts noted that the resource is dominated by unconventional gas.
Rocky Mountain states as defined in the report involve Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Wyoming, and the western half of New Mexico, to include the entire San Juan basin.
Last year, BP PLC, ExxonMobil Corp., and other companies announced expansion plans for operations in the region. ConocoPhillips's pending $35.6 billion acquisition of Burlington Resources Inc. will boost its gas holdings in the area (OGJ, Dec. 19, 2005, p. 41).
Forecasts
WoodMac based its conclusions about future reserves on two forecasts. The first forecast stems from an extrapolation of the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2006.
Using a trend model to calculate what would happen if Rockies reserves growth from 1977 to 2004 continued at the same pace, WoodMac said the region's reserves could reach 133 tcf by yearend 2030.
For the second forecast, WoodMac analysts relied on their own modeling applied to a time series in which successive data points are highly dependent on prior data points. That model suggests Rockies reserves could reach 138 tcf by yearend 2030.
"Although both of these forecasts are based on a different set of statistical techniques, the results are very much aligned," WoodMac said. The forecasts do not include possible changes in regulations, mergers and acquisitions, or technological advances.
