By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, June 21 -- US gas production will have limited growth for 10 years because any new output only will offset declines from aging fields, said a recent report from Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI), Boston.
ESAI analysts expect growth rates of 0-2%/year through 2015. The noted that domestic gas production has declined as a share of total US supply from 95% in the late 1970s to 85% now.
"Domestic production's share of total US supply will gradually decrease from 85% to below 80% after 2010," ESAI analysts Ye Zhang and Paul Flemming wrote. "Canada and Mexico combined will account for 12-13% for the next 10 years, and LNG imports are likely to gain a larger and larger market share."
North American production capacity will remain constrained for at least 5 years. Gas prices thus will remain extremely sensitive to supply disruptions, they said.
The Rocky Mountains is the only region in the Lower 48 states expected to have excess production capacity in the foreseeable future, the report said. It defined the region as including Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico.
ESAI expects average gas production growth in the Rockies of 3-4%/year. Most of the growth will come from unconventional resources, such as coalbed methane.
"Proven reserves of the Rockies have seen the greatest growth among all regions since 1990, increasing 73% from 1990-2003, or 4.3%/year on average," the report said.