Bob Tippee
Sudan took a step forward into the 20th Century Jan. 9 with the signing of an agreement halting 22 years of civil war.
Real peace would satisfy a condition for continued progress toward the country's very achievable status as a major exporter of crude oil (OGJ, Oct. 27, 2003, p. 46).
Many oil companies have found Sudan alluring, achieved some degree of success, then left because of the threat of violence or under pressure from human rights groups. Total SA, which suspended its Sudanese operations in 1985, said recently it wouldn't resume work there until assured of security (OGJ, Jan. 10, p. 33).
So a lush petroleum resource remains greatly underdeveloped. And a country with the potential for prosperity remains one of the poorest in the world, a country in which war has claimed as many as 2 million lives.
The possibility of peace thus means much more than the chance for international oil companies to reenter Sudan and make money. It means hope for a generation that has known only deprivation.
In the civil war, the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), representing tribes in the non-Arab, non-Muslim southern part of the country, clashed with a government controlled by Muslim Arabs of the north.
The peace agreement moves the south toward autonomy. After 6 months of administrative preparation, the region will govern itself provisionally through a 6-year "transition period." It then will hold a referendum to determine whether it secedes or remains part of Sudan.
The agreement also provides for the sharing of power and revenue, much of which comes from oil production of 290,000 b/d and climbing. And it exempts the south from the laws of Islam.
The prospect of Sudan's becoming hospitable to international oil and gas companies is important but infinitely less so than the cessation of a long and bloody war. The peace agreement is big step. But it isn't enough.
While it brings the government and SPLA into accord, it does little to address ethnic violence in the Darfur region of the west. There, as many as 30,000 people have perished in the last 2 years.
(Online Jan. 14, 2005; author's e-mail: [email protected])