Bob Tippee
With global-warming alarmists hoping for help from a disaster movie called "The Day After Tomorrow," studies in the real world tell how much their agenda would cost.
Outside theaters showing the movie, which postulates glaciation of the US, activists are handing out literature about the supposed threat of global warming.
For people who don't take political instructions from professional manufacturers of fantasy, cost estimates are emerging about a global-warming proposal due soon in Congress.
The proposal is a watered-down version of the Climate Stewardship Act, which the Senate rejected last October.
The sponsors, Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.), hope for a new vote this summer on a bill seeking less drastic cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases.
In a requested report in May, the US Energy Information Administration noted that the new version of the legislation would cost less than the original.
But, compared to EIA's base energy forecasts, the new proposal still would raise gasoline prices by 9% in 2010 and 19% in 2025.
The increases for electricity would be 6% in 2010 and 35% in 2025 and for jet fuel, 17% in 2010 and 50% in 2025.
The measure would reduce cumulative gross domestic product during 2004-25 by $776 billion (1996 dollars). The present value, with a 7%/year discount factor, is $290 billion.
A separate study, conducted by Charles River Associates Inc. (CRA) and released this month by the American Council for Capital Formation and United For Jobs, projected the GDP losses resulting from the legislation's implementation at $164-525 billion/year in 2025. The range reflects different assumptions about applicability of a follow-on emissions cap.
The CRA study estimates that costs of the McCain-Lieberman measure to the average US household would reach $600-1,300/year in 2010 and rise to $1,000-2,300/year by 2020.
US job losses would total 39,000-250,000 in 2010 and 190,000-610,000 in 2020, according to CRA.
The same study estimates that the initiative would raise gasoline prices by 9-23% in 2010 and 14-37% in 2020. The gains for electricity would be 13-31% in 2010 and 19-43% in 2020.
These numbers would be especially usefully if printed on handbills and distributed outside performances of "The Day After Tomorrow."
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