Energy laboring

May 14, 2003
The US Congress may send the White House a comprehensive energy plan before Labor Day. Or it may not. Public interest is not a motivating factor these days, given today's retail gasoline prices.

Maureen Lorenzetti

The US Congress may send the White House a comprehensive energy plan before Labor Day. Or it may not. Public interest is not a motivating factor these days, given today's retail gasoline prices.

US gasoline markets could tighten again, depending on the vagaries of world oil markets or if domestic refining and distribution facilities are disrupted in some way, according to the US Energy Information Administration. But the most likely scenario is that prices will be lower than previously predicted.

"Regular gasoline is now projected to average $1.46/gal during the driving season (April through September), less than 10¢/gal above last year's average," EIA said in its monthly outlook.

Commitment remains
Lawmakers from oil and gas producing states say they remain committed to seeing legislation become law; some of those elected officials are in a position to make good on that wish, since they are among the congressional leadership.

The bill's key sponsors, Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) and Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-La.), are skilled dealmakers strongly motivated to get a bill through this year. But timing is everything, and the longer the delay, the less likely a sweeping bill may pass, some lobbyists speculate. Last year a comprehensive bill died partially because of congressional election-year maneuvers; this time, the encroaching 2004 presidential race could be a deciding factor.

The House passed its bill in April; the Senate is debating its version now and could possibly pass a bill before June 30. But getting down to the serious work of negotiating differences between the two proposals may not happen until late summer.

White House views
The White House did not give lawmakers, either this session or in the last one, draft legislation to use as a guide. Instead it issued a series of recommendations under a May 2001 energy strategy "blueprint."

Both Senate and House bills generally follow President George W. Bush's goals, although the White House is unhappy over pending tax proposals.

The White House told senators it wants an energy bill with no more than $9 billion in tax breaks; pending tax proposals in both chambers are about $18 billion, with $5 billion targeted to the oil and gas industry.

The Senate tax bill does not take into account proposed fiscal incentives or loan guarantees for an Alaskan natural gas pipeline. The House and White House oppose tax incentives for the pipeline, but Senate backers predict some kind of incentive will survive in a final bill.

The Congressional Budget Office predicts the total cost of the Senate bill will reach $52 billion from 2004 through 2013.

Meanwhile, a House measure that allows limited leasing on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge coastal plain has full White House support, but it is seen as a deal breaker in the Senate. Lobbyists expect ANWR to be used as a bargaining chip to win other key concessions, possibly for methyl tertiary butyl ether liability.