By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Dec. 13 -- The Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc. has predicted colder than average weather for the eastern US from December through February.
The forecast from AER, Lexington, Mass., opposes the US National Weather Service's forecast of a warm winter for the northern US. Winter temperatures have a direct bearing on energy commodities prices and inventories.
Judah Cohen, AER staff scientist, developed a seasonal forecast model that considers four primary signals and correlates them to 3-month seasonal temperatures in the US and Europe.
His model incorporates El Niño, the global warming trend, Siberian snow cover, and North Atlantic Oscillation-Arctic Oscillation patterns. The signals involve sea level pressure, air temperature, and atmospheric energy flux.
Other organizations incorporate two factors in predicting seasonal climate: the standard models of El Niño and the global warming trend.
Cohen's introduction of a third statistical forecast model in conjunction with the standard methods offers another data point with which to assess the seasonal climate.
"Long-term weather patterns are notoriously hard to predict, but there is a great need for the accurate seasonal predictions possible, as variations in temperature can have extensive economic impact," Cohen said.
"By applying the statistical models I have developed, it is possible to begin to discern distinct patterns that will shape the weather of the coming months. These predictions can then be used by business to better prepare for the months ahead," Cohen added.
