By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Nov. 25 -- Bangladesh has insufficient gas reserves to serve domestic and foreign markets, and the government should not authorize exports, the Nagorik committee recommended in mid-November.
Bangladesh's reserves are 6.2 tcf proved and 5.8 tcf probable, said the committee formed in June 2002 by the Bangladesh Geological Society and Bangladesh Economic Association. The committee consists of a chairman and six professionals and university members familiar with the country's gas sector.
Some of the committee's conclusions are at odds with statements by Unocal Corp., which proposed in late 2001 to export gas by pipeline to India.
Other energy sources than gas are not likely to penetrate Bangladesh markets in any significant way in 40-50 years, the committee argued. It called USGS-Petrobangla estimates of undiscovered resources of 8.43 tcf (95% probability) and 32.1 tcf (mean probability) "conjectural" and termed the figures unsuitable for gas utilization policy matters (OGJ, Nov. 18, 2002, p. 24).
Unocal has proposed to build a $500 million to $700 million, 847-mile, 30 in., 500 MMcfd pipeline from Bibiyana gas-condensate field to the Delhi, India, area (OGJ Online, Dec. 7, 2001). Unocal said the line could serve markets in the Delhi area, along the pipeline itself, and even in western India.
Unocal earlier found that the Bangladesh gas market is oversupplied for 5 years, may be saturated indefinitely, could not accept Bibiyana gas for more than 8 years, and could not take the field's maximum production volumes for more than 15 years.
The committee said that Unocal's production-sharing contract contains no provision for export of gas by pipeline. It argued that Unocal's share of reserves is not enough to support such exports and that state Petrobangla's share of gas would also be required.
Unocal documentation, however, noted that the Block 12 PSC "provides for the right, subject to contract conditions, to export gas in the form of LNG and, if LNG is not feasible, to devise an 'acceptable alternate plan.'" Outside engineers assign Bibiyana field proved and probable reserves of 2.4 tcf and 13.8 million bbl of condensate and found that it could hold a further 3.1 tcf and 16.9 million bbl of possible reserves.
The Nagorik committee also concluded that gas consumed in Bangladesh would be of significantly greater economic value to the country than gas exported.
If Unocal were allowed the option to export, the committee said that the other international oil companies operating in Bangladesh also would want the same option, hastening depletion. A pipeline that has been built across the Jamuna river was intended to supply gas to western Bangladesh, but this goal would be compromised if the line became part of any export project, the committee noted.
Unocal has spoken of a window of opportunity that could close to Bangladesh gas if Middle Eastern LNG or Iranian gas captured Indian markets first.
Meanwhile, at least two operators have reported the discovery of 8-9 tcf of gas in place a few miles offshore in the Bay of Bengal (OGJ Online, Nov. 7, 2002). These finds, in the Krishna-Godavari basin, are a similar distance from Delhi as the Bangladesh gas fields.