By the OGJ Online Staff
HOUSTON, Jan. 17 -- Global demand for butadiene will increase an average of 3.9%/year in 2001-06, predicted Chemical Market Associates Inc., Houston.
In its 2002 World Butadiene Analysis, CMAI noted this is higher than the 1996-2001 rate of 2.7%/year. The growth rate slowed then following a global economic slowdown.
The report said demand in 2001-06 will outpace the rate of capacity additions.
Butadiene is concentrated in manufacture of synthetic rubbers, including chloroprene rubber, nitrile rubber, polybutadiene rubber, and styrene-butadiene rubber. Those derivatives made up 61% of the demand for butadiene in 2001.
In the 2001-06 period, CMAI expects demand for butadiene in the production of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene resins will see the greatest average annual rate of growth of all derivatives.
Polybutadiene will lead all derivatives in the increase of total tons of butadiene consumed, increasing by more than 500,000 tons by 2006.
The regions expected to have the fastest butadiene demand growth over the period are the Former Soviet Union, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
Demand in North America declined by more than 300,000 tons in 2001 from 2000. However, CMAI expects to see demand increase by more than 430,000 tons in 2001-06.
Northeast Asia, the largest consuming region, will increase demand by more than 500,000 tons by 2006.
New butadiene producing capacity is being added at 2.5%/year, said CMAI. It reported, "More than 580,000 tons of new capacity will come on line in Northeast Asia during 2001-2006. Local demand will not consume all of the butadiene that will be produced and the region will remain a net exporter to the world (primarily Southeast Asia)."
Butadiene plant operating rates will increase from 81.1% of their designed capacity in 2001 to more than 86.4% by the end of the period.