CGES told Mideast political changes may set stage for oil projects

Sept. 24, 2001
Senior oil company executives were told Monday that the Middle East continues to hold major opportunities for large-scale oil and gas projects. They said turnovers in some Mideast governments could be expected to be followed by some large energy developments.

by the OGJ Online Staff

LONDON, Sept. 24 -- Senior oil company executives were told Monday that the Middle East continues to hold major opportunities for large-scale oil and gas developments.

They spoke at a Centre for Global Energy Studies symposium on natural gas in the Middle East. Fadhil Chalabi, a CGES executive director and a former deputy General Secretary of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the Middle East still is largely unexplored, although it has two-thirds of the world's oil and a third of its gas reserves.

However, he warned that long-term oil price trends will dictate the economics for gas transportation projects. He said if OPEC keeps prices high, without government policies favoring gas developments for environmental or other reasons, projects might not advance.

Rob Sobhani, President of Caspian Energy Consulting and a professor at Georgetown University, Washington, DC, offered a dramatic interpretation of current events in the region.

He predicted US military strikes directed against accused terrorist Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan also could result in the end of the Taliban regime.

He said, based on briefings he has attended in Washington, it is clear that the US would offer a post-Taliban Afghanistan an economic program to bring long-term stability.

He said that might allow Turkmenistan to export its vast natural gas resources, believed to be the world's fourth largest, to Pakistan and India via a trans-Afghanistan pipeline.

Sobhani said the US offensive against terrorism eventually could bring down Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

"The days of Saddam Hussein and his regime are numbered. The post-Saddam government, with strong ties to the US, will focus on rebuilding the country and this presents an excellent opportunity for companies investing in Iraq's vast natural gas resources."

He said that relations between the US and Iran could also improve, but not to the extent of a normalization of trade. He said, "The beneficiary will be Britain and its leading energy companies."