By Kate Thomas
OGJ Online Staff
HOUSTON, Mar. 6�Summer demand in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) region in 2000 jumped 3.6% from the previous year, but the grid operator is projecting growth to slow this year to just 1.1%.
Summer 2001 demand is projected to peak at 52,930 Mw, an increase of 580 Mw over 2000's peak of 52,350 Mw, PJM Interconnection LLC said in its 2001 load report. But it is unclear how well PJM, which administers 8% of the nation's electricity supply, is prepared to meet this summer's electricity demand in the region.
Last year, the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) forecasted demand would fall 1% in summer 2000 in the PJM region with demand peaking at 51,206 Mw, compared to the actual peak of 52,930 Mw. And the reliability organization predicted with 58,259 Mw of capacity, the region had a 15% capacity margin.
Cynthia Taylor, a spokeswoman for PJM, said the grid operator will not have a summer 2001 seasonal supply assessment available until NERC publishes its semiannual projections in May.
Electricity shortfalls in California have dominated the headlines, overshadowing potential problems in other regions of the country. But PJM experienced its own scare last spring. On successive days in May 2000, citing a "very serious situation," PJM called for conservation to avoid rolling blackouts during a spring heat wave.
Caught off guard with a number of units down for regular maintenance, the grid operator said it used every available unit in the PJM region, recalled off-system sales, curtailed interruptible load customers, and imported 4,000 Mw to serve demand May 8-10.
Traditionally, weather conditions in April, May, and October are moderate, requiring little heating or air conditioning, allowing generating unit operators to make repairs when demand is not as great, and ensuring units will be fully functional during the summer peak. But PJM and similar experiences this winter in California with units down for maintenance have revealed just how tight the reserve margins are in some regions of the country.
PJM avoided interrupting firm customers during the emergency, but the grid operator said it experienced transmission constraints on some parts of the transmission system, causing locational marginal prices to "vary greatly throughout the day."
PJM is forecasting summer peak load growth to average 1.5% during the next 10 years, topping out at 61,482 Mw in 2011. Winter peak load also is projected to grow 1.3%/year, reaching 49,402 Mw in 2011.
Annual energy growth is expected to rise 1.5%/year during the next 10 years, with annual net energy for PJM projected to reach 301,351 gw-hr in 2011.
