EIA predicts US petroleum prices to fall by yearend

March 21, 2001
Consumers will see modest relief from higher fuel prices by the end of the year, the US Energy Information Administration Wednesday told the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. EIA said crude oil and petroleum products prices should decline further next year.


By the OGJ Online Staff


WASHINGTON, DC, Mar. 21
�Consumers will see modest relief from higher fuel prices by the end of the year, the US Energy Information Administration Wednesday told the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.

"In the near term, we expect crude oil and petroleum (products) prices to decline slightly from their current levels by the end of the year and to decline further next year," said Mary Hutzler, director of the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

Longer term the picture is murkier. EIA said assuming continuing growth in the economy, energy demand is expected to increase, with higher levels of crude imports likely. What impact if any that will have on prices is uncertain, the agency indicated.

Panel Chairman Frank Murkowski (R-Alas.) noted that even with oil and gasoline prices moderating, there is cause to be concerned that the US isn't doing enough to ensure secure, affordable energy.

"The US has lost control of its energy future. If we fail to regain control, we risk threatening our economic prosperity, our national security, and our very way of life," he said in opening remarks at the hearing, which focused on energy trends.

Murkowski added that one way to keep prices stable is to boost domestic energy supplies, whether coal, nuclear, oil, or gas.

"We need only look to California as an example of what can happen if we become too reliant on foreign sources of energy."

Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), the ranking Democrat on the committee, said increasing domestic energy production might help, but it is not the only solution to fluctuating prices.

"We need to recognize we cannot produce our way to independence from the world oil market. Whether we import 36%, as in 1973, 50%, or 65% of our oil needs, the price of that oil will be set by forces outside our control," Bingaman told the panel.

"Certainly, we should produce where we can domestically without undue disruption to the environment. But, more importantly, in the short term we must set policies to limit the ever increasing demand for oil to fuel light duty, mostly passenger vehicles."