By Ann de Rouffignac
OGJ Online
HOUSTON, Feb. 27�Doubts surfaced Tuesday over California's ability to quickly add 1,000 Mw of electric generating capacity to serve peak demand this summer.
In a report to Gov. Gray Davis, the California Energy Commission (CEC) identified 32 potential peaking power plant sites and 1,700 Mw of generating capacity that could be used to serve peak summer demand. The report and list of plant sites were prepared in response to the governor�s Feb. 8 order directing the commission to identify sites for peaking power plants.
Earlier this month, Davis conceded the state could be 5,000 Mw in the hole this summer. But based on CEC studies, he also optimistically forecast an additional 5,053 Mw�including 1,000 Mw of peaking capacity over and above the 1,133 Mw already under contract to the California Independent System Operator (ISO)�should be ready by July 2001.
Suzanne Garfield, a spokeswoman for the CEC, conceded not all the projects it identified will be available by this summer. But, she said, "We�re expecting to bring 15 to 20 of them on by the summer." Of the 1,700 Mw identified, the agency projected 1,000 Mw of new peaking facilities will actually be on line by July 2001.
With new capacity identified and progress on a state bailout of its two near bankrupt utilities, Davis was quoted by a national newswire this week as saying the energy crisis could be over within 2 months.
But most experts, including Cambridge Energy Research Associates, have projected a shortfall in electricity supply to meet summer peak demand accompanied by rolling blackouts. Sources close to the ISO, which has predicted a summer shortfall of 3,000-6,000 Mw, have questioned where the CEC found the additional 1,000 Mw of peaking power. And results of an OGJ Online survey cast doubt on whether the peaking projects identified by the CEC will be ready in time to alleviate power shortages this summer.
Missing megawatts
The CEC report identified 14 feasible sites with turbine availability and with a 95% probability of being permitted. But most developers associated with these potential sites said they are only in the discussion stage, greatly reducing chances the plants will actually produce power this summer.
�The state asked us to come back to them with the feasibility of where we could put generation,� said Jim Bray, spokesman for Nuevo Energy Co. �We are looking at it. We don�t have an application, specific site, or time frame.�
Texaco Inc. also has land available in Kern County, access to gas supplies, and expertise in power plants. But a company spokesman said dialogue has begun with the CEC�nothing more.
Valero Energy Corp. is planning a 50 Mw cogeneration plant to be ready by spring of 2002, said Richard Marcogliese, manager of Valero�s Benicia refinery. The power plant will allow the refinery to be self-sufficient and remove some load from the grid, but it is not a peaking facility.
Calpine Corp., identified by the CEC as having four sites and turbines for peaking units, has not committed to specific plans, said Katherine Potter, Calpine spokeswoman. �Right now we can�t commit to any peaking plants to be on line in California by summer 2001,� Potter said.
The CEC identified two cities with sites and turbines. The city of Santa Clara is interested in developing 100 Mw of peaking power plant at a substation site it owns. But no turbines are on order as the CEC claims.
�We are looking to buy them from Calpine,� says Ron Davis, consultant with the city of Santa Clara. �We have the property, gas, and water. But the state has to come through with a contract. A lot of things are still up in the air.�
Pat Keener, a spokesman for city of Redding, said the city expects to complete a 43 Mw plant by summer 2002, not this summer as the CEC suggested in its report.
The CEC listed Iliad Energy Group as readying a 80 Mw peaking unit for 2001.The company is considering plans to build a 100 Mw power plant for a retail customer. But Illiad Pres. Michael Haws said the plant will not be ready until spring of 2002 at best.
Three peaker units listed among the 14 high probability sites will begin producing power this year. The first of three units totaling 147 Mw will be on line by the first of September and the last by Sept. 30, said Hal Mitchell, developer with Sterling Energy Systems Inc., Capistrano Beach, Calif.
These are not �new� megawatts but those already under contract with the California Independent System Operator as part of its summer peaking project announced last fall.