IEA and EIA 20-year oil forecasts

Recently, both IEA and EIA published 20-year forecasts of oil demand. Neither sees a supply constraint in that period. IEA projects growth of 2%/year to 115 million bo/d in 2020, while EIA sees 2.1%/year to 117.4. The two are essentially identical and both are wrong.Here's why. Both forecasts assume a uniform worldwide growth in both oil demand and economic development for the next 2 decades. That just won't happen. Prior to 1973, oil demand essentially doubled every 10 years, growing at 7%/year for 50 years, shrugging off a gut-wrenching worldwide depression and World War II. Since then, growth has been an anemic, and volatile, 0.4 to 1.0%/year, far short of 2%.It may be temptin...

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