The International Energy Agency has confirmed that nations outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have taken a larger share of the world oil market.
IEA, based in Paris, also said oil inventories rose to their highest level in 2 years during October.
IEA reported that while stocks usually fall in the fourth quarter as a result of increased heating oil use, they rose 220,000 b/d during October to 2.65 billion bbl in the 26 countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
IEA said stocks are now 4.7% higher than a year ago and that the major economies probably will get through the coming winter without having to face oil price rises.
"Signs of optimism are beginning to emerge in the broader economy," IEA said. "US oil demand, especially for jet fuel, may not be as weak as initially feared."
IEA added, "In the absence of a severe winter, heating oil and kerosine prices are unlikely to come under significant pressure. Supplies are comfortable."
Rising non-OPEC output
The IEA report says that non-OPEC oil producers will likely increase output by 920,000 b/d in 2002, 80,000 b/d more than it forecast last month.
The agency raised its estimate for 2001 non-OPEC production growth by 100,000 b/d to 690,000 b/d. It said OPEC continues to exceed its own production quotas even as it calls for new output reductions from nonmember countries.
The 10 OPEC members who participate in production agreements (Iraq does not), produced 500,000 b/d more than promised last month, the IEA report shows.
