Managing Oil & Gas Companies: Probabilistic methods with simulation help predict timing, costs of projects

Continuous probabilistic techniques involving simulation can help managers predict the likelihood of time and cost overruns in all types and sizes of oil and gas projects.By deriving time and cost forecasts from a series of trials, simulation offers insight into project risks and quantifies the chances that a project will be completed within budget targets and deadlines.Unlike discrete deterministic methods, probabilistic simulation systematically incorporates the risks associated with a range of uncertainties about costs and completion times of project activities. The results take the form of a numerical distribution, with each value in the distribution linked to a probability of its occ...

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