The Middle East continues to hold major opportunities for large-scale oil and gas developments.
More such opportunities could arise in the wake of political changes emanating from the aftermath of terrorist attacks on the US.
That view emerged at a Centre for Global Energy Studies symposium on natural gas in the Middle East last week (see related story, p. 32).
Middle East potential
Fadhil Chalabi, a CGES executive director and a former Deputy General Secretary of the Organization of Petro- leum Exporting Countries, said the Middle East still is largely unexplored, although it has two thirds of the world's proven oil reserves and a third of its gas reserves.
However, he warned that long-term oil price trends will dictate the eco- nomics for gas transportation projects. He said that if OPEC keeps oil prices high, without government policies favoring gas developments for environmental or other reasons, gas projects in the region might not advance.
Terrorism aftermath
Rob Sobhani, president of Caspian Energy Consulting and a professor at Georgetown University, both in Washington, DC, offered a dramatic interpretation of current events in the region.
He predicted US military strikes directed against accused terrorist Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan also could result in the end of the Taliban regime.
He said that, based on briefings he has attended in Washington, it is clear that the US would offer a post-Taliban Afghanistan an economic program to bring long-term stability to that nation.
That, in turn, might allow Turkmenistan to export its vast natural gas reserves, believed to be the world's fourth largest, to Pakistan and India via a trans-Afghanistan pipeline.
Sobhani said the US offensive against terrorism eventually could bring down Iraqi President Saddam Hussein: "The days of Saddam Hussein and his regime are numbered. The post-Saddam government, with strong ties to the US, will focus on rebuilding the country, and this presents an excellent opportunity for companies investing in Iraq's vast natural gas resources."
He said that relations between the US and Iran could also improve but not to the extent of a normalization of trade: "The beneficiary will be Britain and its leading energy companies."
