Africa perspective very promising

July 2, 2001
This issue of OGJ contains a special report, Africa in Perspective.

This issue of OGJ contains a special report, Africa in Perspective.

Examination of Africa's reserves, production, and refining capacity trends might help fill in this perspective.

African countries collectively hold only one tenth of the proved oil reserves and one fifth of the proved gas reserves of the Middle East, but Africa is beginning to pull ahead from its traditional low ranking among the world's regions in production and reserves.

Statistics

Africa's crude and condensate production has neared 7 million b/d in recent months after remaining nearly flat at 6 million b/d for the 1970s, 1980s, and much of the 1990s.

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The recent gains stem from good increases in Sudan, Nigeria, and Algeria. Large increases are on the way in the next few years mainly from world class fields off Angola, Algerian fields, Nigerian deepwater fields, and Chad (OGJ, June 11, 2001, p. 86).

African oil and condensate reserves were 75 billion bbl at the beginning of this year, having returned to about the same level as in 1971 (see table). At that time the main players were the same: Algeria and Nigeria with about 30 billion bbl each and Libya a distant third with 9 billion bbl.

In a monthly estimate more recent than shown on the table, OGJ put Africa's gas production at 350 bcfd in March 2001, up from the year 2000 average of 274 bcfd. Algeria provides 70% of Africa's total gas output, and Egypt is second with 13%. Gas development and utilization initiatives in several countries portend further production gains this decade.

Africa's gas reserves at 394 tcf are more than double the 191 tcf evident in 1971.

The continent's refining capacity, now more than 3.2 million b/d, was still less than 1 million b/d as recently as 1970.

Big and small projects

Large projects are driving Africa's production growth for the most part.

A major share of oil production growth will come from projects attached to large oil field discoveries off Angola, Nigeria, and Equatorial Guinea the last 4 years.

One report indicated the magnitude of what is in store off West Africa the next 5 years (OGJ Online, Nov. 29, 2000).

The list includes 176 field developments fueling a production increase of as much as 3 million b/d, including 192 new platforms with more than 700 platform wells, close to 300 new subsea well installations installed or on order, and as much as 4,000 km in new pipelines.

West Africa had 633 platforms at the time of the study.

North Africa has already seen large oil production gains from staged developments of a string of discoveries by Ana- darko Petroleum Corp., Agip SPA, and others in the Gha- dames and Illizi basins of Algeria, the opening and initiation of production from the Murzuk basin of far southwestern Libya, and large oil and gas developments in Egypt's Western Desert.

A Talisman Energy Inc. group is producing well above 200,000 b/d from southern Sudan, and more discoveries have been reported there. Within 2 years a separate group will start up a large heavy oil development project in Chad.

On the gas side, projects to make use of gas now being flared are mandated in much of West Africa. One article in the OGJ special report describes the challenges that face operators with gas production in Nigeria.

Algeria is supplementing its already large pipeline shipments of gas to Europe with the In Amenas and In Salah projects, both under development hundreds of kilometers from Hassi R'Mel.

A string of gas and gas-condensate fields is being developed in Egypt's Nile Delta, where deepwater exploration is at an early stage.

South Africa, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Namibia are trying to get fledgling gas infrastructure projects off the ground.

Outlook

As long as oil and gas prices hold up, exploration could also flourish in Africa's nonproducing and lightly producing areas.

These stretch across the continent from Morocco and nonproducing coastal countries to its south, through Niger, Chad, and Central African Republic, to sub-Saharan countries north of South Africa.