Azerbaijan production estimates

The Robert Smith of FACTS Inc. article, "Politics, production levels to determine Caspian area energy export options" (OGJ May 28, 2001, p. 33) claims that Caspian Sea region oil exports have a brighter future than they did 2 years ago.I remain skeptical, particularly about the Azerbaijan production estimates.These depend on new pipelines (yet to be built) going through unstable countries. If these do not go ahead, then the Baku-linked production from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will also fail to materialize.In 1993, the World Bank envisaged Azerbaijan production moving from 220,000 b/d to a peak of 1 million b/d in 2004. By 1995, the European Commission had current production at 190,000 ...

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