Azerbaijan production estimates

June 18, 2001
The Robert Smith of FACTS Inc. article, "Politics, production levels to determine Caspian area energy export options" (OGJ May 28, 2001, p. 33) claims that Caspian Sea region oil exports have a brighter future than they did 2 years ago.

The Robert Smith of FACTS Inc. article, "Politics, production levels to determine Caspian area energy export options" (OGJ May 28, 2001, p. 33) claims that Caspian Sea region oil exports have a brighter future than they did 2 years ago.

I remain skeptical, particularly about the Azerbaijan production estimates.

These depend on new pipelines (yet to be built) going through unstable countries. If these do not go ahead, then the Baku-linked production from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will also fail to materialize.

In 1993, the World Bank envisaged Azerbaijan production moving from 220,000 b/d to a peak of 1 million b/d in 2004. By 1995, the European Commission had current production at 190,000 b/d peaking 11 years later at 800,000 b/d.

Move on 4 years to 1999 and Wood Mackenzie had production still about the same at 200,000 b/d rising to 1.4 million 11 years later. Now 2 more years down the line production has still not kicked off and the elusive peak is still over a decade away in 2015.

There's a depressing pattern there that's plain to see.

Mike Lillico
Mallorca, Spain