Editor's note: This letter originally appeared Nov. 13, 2000, p. 10, and contained errors introduced in typesetting. This is the correct version.
In 1993 the World Bank produced the first independent estimates of Azerbaijan Oil potential. This gave actual production at 220,000 b/d peaking at 1 million b/d in 2004. In 1995, I was involved in a European Commission study which had current production moving from 190,000 b/d to 800,000 b/d in 2006. The articles by Wood Mackenzie on Caspian Sea potential (OGJ July 24, 2000, p. 38; and Aug. 21, 2000, p. 52) forecast Azerbaijan's production peaking at about 1.4 million b/d in 2010 from today's 200,000 b/d.
Can we conclude that in the foreseeable future, as over the last 7 years, actual production will remain static at 200,000 b/d and the boom will remain a decade away from where ever we are now?
Mike Lillico
Mallorca, Spain
