Demand for petroleum refining catalysts in the US will receive a boost between 1998 and 2003 as new emission standards are implemented, octane requirements are increased, and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) is phased out.
Demand for these catalysts totaled $1.1 billion in 1998 and will increase by more than $250 million over the 5-year period. These are the conclusions of a recent study on chemical and refining catalysts, published by Freedonia Group Inc., Cleveland, Ohio.
Petroleum refining catalysts include those used in catalytic cracking, alkylation, hydrotreating, hydrocracking, and reforming.
Demand for unit catalysts
Table 1 shows the historical and forecast market values of refining catalysts from 1989 to 2003. Catalytic cracking, alkylation, and hydroprocessing catalysts account for more than 90% of refining catalysts.
Demand for catalytic cracking will increase by 3%/year between 1998 and 2003. The declining quality of crude in the US will require heavier use of catalytic cracking catalysts.
In the mid-1990s, clean air regulations increased the use of oxygenates such as MTBE. As MTBE displaced benzene and olefins in the gasoline pool, it depressed the alkylates market. Growing concern over MTBE in groundwater, however, has led California to ban MTBE as soon as supplies and prices permit (OGJ, Dec. 20, 1999, p. 34).
As alkylates have high octane numbers and good antiknock and clean-burning properties, it is one of the most promising alternatives to MTBE in gasoline. Hence, according to Freedonia, demand for alkylation catalysts (hydrofluoric and sulfuric acids) will increase by 5%/year between 1998 and 2003.
Recent proposals to reduce the sulfur in gasoline (OGJ, Jan. 3, 2000, p. 26) will increase demand for hydroprocessing capacity, and hence, hydroprocessing catalysts. The market value for hydroprocessing catalysts will increase by more than 6%/year to about $310 million by 2003.
Pressure on catalyst manufacturers to make longer lasting, more efficient catalysts and the increasing popularity of catalyst regeneration will restrain volume gains in hydroprocessing catalysts, however.
