Azerbaijan production estimates

Nov. 13, 2000
In 1993, the World Bank produced the first independent estimates of Azerbaijan's oil potential.

In 1993, the World Bank produced the first independent estimates of Azerbaijan's oil potential. It gave actual production at 220,000 b/d peaking at 1 million b/d in 2004. In 1995, I was involved in a European Commission study which had current production moving from 190,000 b/d to 800,000 b/d in 2006. The articles by Wood Mackenzie on Caspian Sea potential (OGJ, July 24, 2000, p. 38) and (OGJ, Aug. 21, 2000, p. 52) forecast Azerbaijan's production peaking at about 14 million b/d in 2010 from today's 200,000 b/d.

Can we conclude that in the foreseeable future, as over the past 7 years, actual production will remain static at 200,000 b/d and the bottom will remain a decade away from wherever we are now?

Mike Lillico
Mallorca, Spain