Caspian region

Aug. 14, 2000
The article on Caspian region's future hydrocarbon reserves and production potential (OGJ, July 24, 2000, p. 38) is interesting for

The article on Caspian region's future hydrocarbon reserves and production potential (OGJ, July 24, 2000, p. 38) is interesting for newcomers to this theatre, but a little out-of-fashion for those who have been scouting for opportunities since the break-up of FSU. The assumption that the Caspian Basin is the only region where "Risk management and financing capacity" are two key questions is simply a na

The second item to note is the over optimistic and most simplistic projections on productions from the Caspian Basin. Such high-profile production figures (3.5 MMbbl by 2010) are neither geologically deliverable (at this stage of understanding) nor marketing (of productions) attainable within such a short timeframe, lacking economical infrastructures and political/judicial maturity among the newly born producing countries.

No doubt Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have done extremely well in getting their houses in order to attract the E&P community. Praise must be in place for open door and nondiscrimination policies of these two countries regarding E&P opportunities for mega-majors and independents.

I also think assumption of Western Europe's reserve size is on the optimistic side (60 billion bbl ???) as North Sea production and reserves have been declining rapidly for several years. There is no doubt Caspian Basin's reserves will grow to be (ultimately) twice that of West European current reserve base, considering the extent of the under-explored section of the Caspian Basin.

To conclude, Mesozoic and Paleozoic age basins of the world are yet to be explored accurately for their reserve identification and mapping, and there lies the hope for adequate energy supply for the next 3 centuries.

S.K. Bhattacharjee
President
SITA Oil Exploration House
Kumar