Two likely MTBE scenarios

Case 1 (50% probability):Scenario:California:Phases out MTBE by the end of 2002.Maintains 2.0 wt % oxygen, with ethanol at this level.Adjusts CARB standards appropriately.Makes up volume from imported iso-octane.Rest of the US:Gradually reduces MTBE use in northeastern states.Adds ethanol to bring average oxygenates content in RFG to 2.0 wt %.Begins process in 2002 and completes process by 2005.Has no national ethanol mandate.Rest of the world:MTBE use grows as refiners try to meet new aromatics standards in Europe and correct bad pollution in Asia.No widespread ethanol lobbies.Official emphasis on air quality and avoiding benzene.Impacts:MTBE and ethanol uses change as shown in Table 1a....

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