Third oil shock: real or imaginary?

Crude oil prices rose from $10.90/bbl on Mar. 10, 1999, to $33.92/bbl exactly 1 year later. The price increase moved the issues of US energy policy briefly from the back pages of the business section to the front page. However, the attention was brief.By early April, prices had declined by one-third and attention shifted to Microsoft, tax cuts, the election, and the stock market. Oil was quickly banished again from the public eye. No doubt, everyone hopes it will stay out of sight for another 10 years.The topic will return to the front pages soon, however, because the world may be confronted by a third oil shock. This third upset promises to be similar to but have a more modest economic i...

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