The US Energy Information Administration predicts that world energy use will continue growing rapidly until at least the year 2020, particularly in developing nations.
EIA's latest international energy outlook estimates that overall energy consumption will rise 60% during 1997-2020. Faster-than-average growth is expected for developing nations (121%), world natural gas use (104%), and world net electricity consumption (76%).
Due to revisions in historical data and a higher forecast for oil consumption in the former Soviet Union, EIA predicts that world carbon emissions will grow 40% during 1990-2010 and 72% during 1990-2020.
EIA expects natural gas to be the fastest-growing component of primary world energy consumption, more than doubling during 1997-2020. Gas will account for the largest incremental increase in electricity generation (41% of the additional energy used for generation).
Oil is expected to remain the major energy source. In industrialized countries, most of the growth will be in the transportation sector.
In developing countries, the transportation sector also shows the fastest projected growth, but oil used for purposes other than transportation is expected to contribute 41% of the total oil demand increase.
EIA said, "The growth in nontransportation oil use in the developing world is, in part, caused by the substitution of petroleum products for noncommercial fuels [such as wood burning for home heating and cooking] as incomes rise and the energy infrastructure matures."
The agency predicted US oil production would fall from the current 6.5 million b/d to 5.1 million b/d in 2020, when oil imports will account for 64% of US oil supplies, up from the current 53%.
Gasoline outlook
EIA Administrator Jay Hakes said US refineries will have to operate at 98% capacity this summer, up from the current 90%, to supply enough gasoline to meet consumer demand.
Hakes said, "OPEC uncertainty, high demand for transportation fuels, and lower-than-normal crude oil and gasoline inventory levels increase the potential for gasoline supply [and] distribution problems this summer.
He said that, although stocks are tight, no gasoline shortages are expected.
Hakes said there could be sharp increases in retail prices, however, especially on the West Coast. He explained that minor problems in the gasoline distribution system could cause motor fuel price surges of 20-25¢/gal.
