European authorities have voiced concerns about the ability of wind power to meet 10% of electricity demand by 2020, as proposed.
Environmental campaign group Greenpeace, the European Wind Energy Association, and the Danish Forum for Energy & Development produced a report to dispel such doubts.
Greenpeace said the study showed that a total of 1.2 million Mw of wind power capacity could be installed worldwide by 2020 to produce 10% of the world's power.
This capacity, said Greenpeace, would equate to more than the total electric power consumption in Europe today, or 20% of worldwide electric power consumption in 1998.
The three groups reckon that this wind-power boom would create 1.7 million jobs worldwide and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than 10 billion tonnes. One fifth of the additional capacity would be required in Europe, creating about 250,000 jobs there.
Growth expectations
At the end of 1998, worldwide wind power capacity amounted to 10,153 Mw, of which 2,597 Mw was installed during that year.
The three groups predict that the growth rate for installation of new wind-power capacity will be 20%/year during 1998-2003, after which worldwide wind power capacity would be 33,400 Mw.
To meet 10% of global electricity demand by 2020, though, the growth rate for installation would need to be 30%/year during 2004-10, after which growth rates would be expected to decline to an installation rate of about 150,000 Mw/year.
This would be achievable, they maintain, because the wind industry demonstrated during 1993-98 that it can increase capacity at a rate of 40%/year, because unit costs are expected to decline as wind turbine production volumes increase, and because a boom is envisioned in offshore wind-power installations.
Crucially, wind turbine manufacturers are judged able to keep up with this anticipated growth spurt: "By the end of 1999, manufacturing capacity is expected to reach a level of 5,000-6,000 Mw/year, with adequate venture capital available for further development."
Willpower
The three groups maintain that this blossoming of wind power would only be possible with the demonstration of willpower by governments.
Corin Millais, Greenpeace renewable energy campaigner, said, "Governments must now act to establish the regulatory framework and set legally binding targets for renewables. There's no excuse for inaction, because wind power is an affordable, feasible, mainstream global energy force that is able to substitute for conventional fuels."
Denmark is leading Europe's wind power program, but the UK wind industry's recent downturn following a reduction in government concessions shows that wind technology still needs government help to get established.
Danish Forum Chairman Hans Bjerregard said: "We are already approaching 10% of wind power in Denmark, and the official target for wind in Denmark is 50% of electricity consumption by 2030, including pioneering the development of offshore wind (generation).
"This report proves that we can replicate the success of the Danish model if governments will step up the promotion of renewable energies."
