There are 107 floating production systems (FPSs) in operation worldwide-an increase of 67% over the number operating 3 years ago. And this increased growth is expected to continue into the next decade.
The 3-year increase in the global FPS inventory was reached through the installation of 49 units: 22 floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessels, 9 production semisubmersibles, 3 tension-leg platforms (TLPs), 2 mini-TLPs, and 2 production spars.
These are among the findings of a study by International Maritime Associates Inc. (IMA), Washington, DC.
"...We see no slowdown of growth in this sector," said IMA. "Our forecast calls for the inventory of operating units to grow 48-66% between 2000 and 2005, requiring orders for 62-84 FPSO vessels, production semisubmersibles, TLPs, or spars over the next 5 years."
Rise in FPS use
Of the 107 FPSs in operation today, about 58% are FPSOs, 30% are production semis, 10% are TLPs, and 2% are production spars (Fig. 1). Also in use are 54 floating storage and offloading (FSO) systems without production capability-an increase of nine since IMA's September 1996 FPS report. Two of these FSOs are used for LPG storage.
"In March, we said the economic typhoon that triggered the downturn in the offshore sector was passing and oil producers had reached a position where they could control output," said IMA. "We also said the combination of increased demand and more tightly controlled production would lead to an increase in oil prices by mid-year."
Operators now have orders in for 21 additional FPSs and 5 FSOs. "This total is two fewer production units and one less storage unit than reported in our March update, reflecting the slowdown in offshore activity over the past 18 months," says IMA.
The 26 production and storage vessels on order include: 13 FPSOs (7 new, 6 conversions or upgrades), 5 production semis (3 new, 2 conversions), 1 large TLP, 1 mini-TLP, 1 production spar, and 5 FSOs (1 new, 4 conversions). The delivery of the units on order would increase FPS inventories by 20%, and capital expenditures for these new systems would total $17.3-23.8 billion, says IMA.
Long-term outlook
In the longer term, said IMA, "We have identified 209 floating production systems currently being planned or under study. These are known projects where a floating system is being considered as the production solution. Some of these are in the advanced design stage; some are at an early stage of consideration." Of the 209 under development or consideration, more than 60% are allocated for use in the Gulf of Mexico, Western Africa, and Northern Europe (Fig. 2).
"The current list of projects being planned or under study is a substantial increase over the 188 projects identified in our March update," said IMA, "which seems to indicate that interest in projects involving floating production continues to be strong, despite the downturn in actual orders over the past several months.
"Proceeding with individual projects will hinge on the economics of the discovery, which in turn will be influenced by the expected price of oil and project development cost. Not all will materialize, and in some cases another production solution will be selected. And there are undoubtedly other projects in the planning and study phase where information has not yet been publicly released."
