Northwest Europe's offshore oil and NGL production during first half 1999 showed an increase from the same period last year but fell short of expectations.
This is the view of Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd., Edinburgh, which said that combined offshore oil and NGL output averaged 6.03 million b/d in the first 6 months of the year vs. an expected 6.49 million b/d.
The analyst said that, despite the first-half shortfall, the region's overall offshore production is expected to rise substantially by yearend, to give a forecast average of 6.2 million b/d for all of 1999.
"Despite the shortfall in the first half of 1999," said Wood Mackenzie, "production is forecast to increase substantially towards the end of the year, driven by newly commissioned Norwegian and Danish fields building up output towards plateau production levels.
"This trend is expected to continue in 2000 and could result in a year-on-year increase of 500,000-600,000 b/d from the North Sea area as a whole for 2000."
Norway
Norway's liquids output averaged 3.06 million b/d in the first 6 months of the year, a shortfall of 173,000 b/d from Wood Mackenzie's forecast.
This was attributed to: lower than anticipated production from a number of large mature fields; delays in the Åsgard, Oseberg Øst, and Visund developments; and start-up problems in fields that came on stream in the last 2 years, namely Ekofisk II, Njord, Norne, and Varg.
"Norwegian output of oil and NGL in the second half of 1999 is set to increase," said Wood Mackenzie, "as a number of new and recently commissioned developments increase output.
"Decreased output from most of the large mature fields in the central and northern (Norwegian) North Sea will offset the increases from the new fields. However, the net effect is a significant rise in production towards the end of the year."
The analyst predicts that Norway's oil and NGL output will average 3.2 million b/d for all of 1999, an increase from 3.14 million b/d last year: "However, considerable uncertainty still remains about the performance of new and recent developments."
U.K.
U.K. oil and NGL total output averaged 2.67 million b/d for the first 6 months of 1999, which was 272,000 b/d less that the analyst's forecast.
Yet production for the period was nevertheless up 3% from the same 6 months in 1998, and Wood Mackenzie attributed the variation from expected performance mainly to underperformance of existing fields, with a number of floating production units suffering mechanical problems.
U.K. operators brought seven new fields on stream in first half 1999, with combined capacity to produce up to 200,000 b/d of liquids. Six further developments are expected to be completed by yearend, with a combined average output expected to be 120,000 b/d.
These new developments off the U.K. are expected to increase production significantly towards yearend, raising average output for the year to 2.67 million b/d, a new record for annual U.K. production and a 54,000 b/d hike from the 1998 average.
Denmark, the Netherlands
Danish oil and NGL production performed largely as expected from January to June, averaging 273,000 b/d.
Wood Mackenzie said a solid performance from Dan and Gorm fields largely offset weak performances in Harald, Lulita, and Skjold fields and the delayed start-up of the Siri field development.
Denmark's production is expected to rise through the last 6 months of the year, boosted by the completion of the South Arne development, with a new average production level of 304,000 b/d anticipated for the full year. This would be up 66,000 b/d from the 1998 average.
Oil and NGL production off the Netherlands showed only minor variations from the forecast, with combined output averaging 25,500 b/d during the first half.
However, Dutch liquids production is expected to decline moderately during the latter half of 1999, to give an average of 25,000 b/d for the year compared with 27,000 b/d for 1998.
