Oil, gas field growth projections: wishful thinking or reality?

E.D. Attanasi, R.F. Mast, D.H. Root U.S. Geological Survey Inferred reserves, defined as expected additions to proved reserves in fields already discovered-are observed as "field growth." They accounted for 65% of the total oil and 34% of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in onshore and state offshore areas.1 Specifically, the USGS predicted that the known recovery of pre-1992 discoveries in the Lower 48 states will grow by 47 billion bbl of oil and 290 tcf of dry gas (304 tcf of wet gas) from 1992 through 2071. This article compares observed "field growth" for the period from 1992 through 199...

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