The U.K. Health and Safety Executive (HSE), London, announced a new computer model to enable plant operators to improve the effectiveness of warnings to the public in the case of a major incident.
The government safety watchdog said the model will allow accurate risk assessment for site and preplanning purposes, while taking account of the methods of public emergency response teams.
The new model was created after studies showed there are marked differences in the effectiveness of different types of warning systems, depending on where they are placed and how they are perceived.
HSE said this can lead to considerable variation in the time it takes local residents to evacuate when a major hazard develops. This can prove critical where a major hazard develops quickly.
The model comprises a series of algorithms that describe the dissemination of different types of warning messages and their effect on a population at risk. HSE said the model has been tested on an imaginary release of toxic gas from a chemical plant, with the gas being blown towards an urban area on the outskirts of Ellesmere Port, U.K.
"A number of runs of the model have been conducted," said HSE. "The model allows a reasonably accurate and applicable means of risk assessment.
"The response model has been implemented as a computer program that allows the use of a spreadsheet to define hazard scenarios and that successfully iterates over time to simulate the response of various groups of people to the threat being modeled."
Copyright 1998 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.
