Global refining addresses increased oil demands, new challenges

Tim W. Martin
Stone & Webster Technology Corp.
Houston

About this report...

This year's Refining Report begins with a global outlook of worldwide refining trends, authored by Tim Martin of Stone & Webster Technology Corp. That is followed by two articles updating projects in South America. Argentina's Lujan de Cuyo refinery becomes an exporter of unleaded gasoline after building an alkylation unit, and Venezuela's Amuay refinery meets more stringent environmental regulations when it obtains a new hydrogen plant.

Rising utilization rates, eroding refining margins, and lower spending capital present new challenges for the refining industry.

Refiners address these concerns by becoming low-cost, efficient producers. Alliances and joint ventures are a couple of ways refiners have responded in the past year.

Worldwide oil demand is increasing at a rate of about 1.3%/year. In 1980, 78% of the world's GDP (gross domestic product) was concentrated in North America, Western Europe, and Japan. The figure slipped to 75% in 1995 and is projected to fall to 70% for that group by 2010.

Although industrial countries account for less than 25% of the world's population, they use about 75% of the global fossil fuel.

U.S. major oil companies realized an increase in earnings in 1997 as a result of lower oil prices, stronger refined-product and petrochemical pricing, technology improvements, and continued cost-cutting efforts.

In spite of the U.S.'s positive refining outlook, the recent financial chaos in the Asia/Pacific region underscores the global nature of the business.

Global refining

Today, the 702 refineries in the world have a refinery capacity utilization of about 84%. Most distillation capacity growth is in the South America/Caribbean, Middle East, and Asia/Pacific regions.

Although grassroots refining activity has been on hold in the U.S. over the past 2 decades, a potential 75,000 b/d refinery is being studied in Arizona. Table 1 [8,891 bytes] lists other potential grassroots refinery projects expected within the next 5 years. The majority of grassroots refinery projects are economically driven by the domestic marketplace.

The capital cost of a grassroots facility, depending on complexity and location, is about $7,000-12,000 per b/d of distillation capacity. In contrast, today's refineries are often resold for as little as $500 per b/d of distillation capacity, or less than $100 per b/d per complexity barrel basis.

According to HPI market data, global spending for refining projects is projected to reach a record $17.2 billion in 1998.

Global asset rationalization

State oil companies (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Mexico) have been moving into other large consumer marketplaces. Foreign affiliates own nearly 30% of the total U.S. refining capacity. Table 2 [25,845 bytes] shows a breakdown of the ownerships of several state oil companies.

The top nine state-owned companies in the world have a total refining capacity of about 14 million b/d vs. about 15.9 million b/d of refining capacity owned by the top six international majors.

The drift toward consolidation of assets in the refining industry in the U.S. is a result of too much capacity, low margins, and low profitability. In the U.S., about 15% of U.S. distillation capacity is owned by producer countries, about 18% of U.S distillation capacity represents major alliances, about 20% of U.S. distillation capacity is pursuing heavy oil projects with Venezuela, and about 25% of U.S. distillation capacity has changed ownership in the past year.

The consolidation activities have also spread to Western Europe, which is saddled with old and inefficient plants. The European Union recommends closing at least 50 million metric tons/year (mty) of refining capacity in Europe. Of the total 650-700 million mty of regional capacity, 11% of that is surplus. European oil demand is slated to grow at only 1.2% per year through 2020.

National oil producers and refiners are also partnering in a risk-sharing scenario by providing a secure crude supply for a stable hydrocarbon revenue stream.

Global supply and demand

Currently, global oil production and oil consumption are 74 and 72 million b/d, respectively. Global distillation capacity is 78.3 million b/d. By the year 2010, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts world oil demand will increase to about 90 million b/d.

World oil production, excluding OPEC members, is projected to reach 44.7 million b/d by 2010. The Western Hemisphere is becoming less dependent on Arabian Gulf crude as a result of increased production from Latin America, non-OPEC Africa, the North Sea, the Former Soviet Union (FSU), and non-OPEC Asia, as well as a less-than-predicted decline of U.S. reserves.

North America's oil demand is about 20.5 million b/d, or nearly 30% of the world total. The U.S. imports about 8 million b/d of crude oil vs. the Asia/Pacific region's 10 million b/d oil imports. Currently, U.S. petroleum demand is up 1 million b/d over 1996, resulting in a dramatic 5.5-6% increase, largely as a result of improved economic conditions. In contrast, the Middle East exports nearly 16.5 million b/d.

Fig. 1 [94,613 bytes] illustrates the worldwide movement of crude.

U.S.

Since 1981, the U.S. refining industry has spent $50 billion on its refining assets. Returns on equity for petroleum companies, however, remain less than that of other non-energy operations.

Despite rationalization, the U.S. refining industry is still the largest, most sophisticated processing region in the world. U.S. refineries process an average crude slate of 32.3° API gravity and 1.18 wt % sulfur. Complexity ratios are measured by the refiner's upgrading capacity relative to its overall distillation capacity. The average refinery in the U.S. has a complexity ratio of 70% vs. a worldwide average ratio of 30%. Conversion margins, however, remain volatile.

Unique U.S. refinery configuration cornerstones include fluid-catalytic cracking (FCC) and delayed coking processes which maximize gasoline production and minimize fuel oil production. Present gasoline and distillate demands in the U.S. marketplace are about 8.0 and 3.4 million b/d, respectively.

Table 3 [9,722 bytes] shows the regional market differentiation for refining.

U.S. asset rationalization

The past decade has been a difficult period for the mature U.S. refining business. Since 1990, about 30 refineries have been shut down (many with a capacity of less than 100,000 b/d), a 15% reduction of the total domestic capacity. Crude processing capacity has remained relatively flat during the past 10 years at 15.3 vs. 15.4 million b/d, respectively, for 1986 and 1996.

Throughput capacity has remained relatively unchanged as a result of refinery "creep," or competition-driven modernization. Mergers, acquisitions, and directives within the U.S. refining business have increased efficiencies, management sharing, business processes, and support functions.

The large capital expenditures required by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, volatile crude and refined product pricing, and increased dependence on foreign feedstocks and products, have forced the sale of non-strategic or non-core refining assets. On the other hand, the high environmental costs associated with closing facilities have enabled some marginal facilities to continue to operate in a highly competitive marketplace.

U.S. refining margins

The pressure on refining margins is a result of excess refining capacity and increased competition in the marketplace.

Refinery utilization in the U.S. has increased from 66% in 1982 to more than 94% in 1997, near its maximum sustainable operating factor, which is about 95%. This strained capacity requires more refined-product imports. High operating rates are also sensitive to supply disruptions in the marketplace.

The refining industry is feedstock driven, with over 80% of the revenues attributed to feedstock cost. During the past 5 years, the cash operating margin was about $0.60/crude bbl, which makes justification of discretionary investments extremely difficult.

During the 1990s, U.S. refineries spent about $30 billion to comply with government mandates, largely environmental, to stay in business. The return on equity has been a meager 5% due to weak refining margins for the U.S. refining industry.

The complexity of the U.S. refining industry has also been a disadvantage. Although the U.S. has spent significant capital to process heavy sour crudes, the present heavy sour and light sweet crude differential in the marketplace is near a 10-year low, i.e., in the $1-2/bbl range vs. the historical $3-4/bbl range.

U.S. clean fuels

On Dec. 1, 1994, reformulated gasoline (RFG) was introduced at the wholesale level, followed by its introduction at the retail level on Jan. 1, 1995. RFG has captured about 25% of the marketplace in the United States, with New York Harbor the usual deficit area.

As a result of the present state of regulatory confusion, many refiners are delaying RFG investments. Therefore, the demand outlook for the year 2000 is at best anybody's guess.

The complex model emphasizes about a 25% reduction in the baseline gasoline emissions by Jan. 1, 2000.

RFG has contributed to a premium of about 2-4¢/gal more than conventional gasoline. The mandated program has been attributed to poorer auto performance, possible health risks, and possible fire hazards. In addition, the logistics required to segregate conventional and reformulated grades is a task in itself.

Canadian refiners are also preparing for some difficult times ahead, especially in the maritime provinces. Refiners from Latin America and Europe are disposing of surplus conventional and RFG gasoline in the U.S. Because the Canadian market is small, Canadian refiners depend on northeastern U.S. demands. As a result of the increased competition, Canada has difficulty getting rid of its surplus gasoline. Inexpensive Canadian gas is competing with heating oil and creating further margin pressures.

There are also "unlevel playing field" concerns with foreign exporters of gasoline to the U.S. Foreign refiners' local production costs are significantly less as a result of less stringent environmental regulations.

Western Europe, Canada, the Middle East, Asia/Pacific, and Latin/South America are all following the U.S.'s lead, adopting more stringent environmental regulations.

Latin America

After years of mismanagement by governments, decisions are now made by the Latin American companies rather than state bureaucrats. Risk has risen, however, as government protection has disappeared.

Despite the regional risk profile, immature financial markets, threats of terrorism, and political and regulatory uncertainty, the region still attracts investment. Recognition of property rights, reduced government interference, privatization, lower trade barriers, and foreign capital acceptance make Latin America's petroleum and chemical industries a good investment. Latin America is also emphasizing clean transportation fuels and decreasing fuel oil production.

Latin America is expected to play a more significant role in terms of crude and refined product exports due to its geographic proximity to the large U.S. marketplace.

Venezuela

About 60% of Venezuela's crude is exported to the U.S. Petroleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa) is entering into agreements with select refineries to use coking technology with its heavy Venezuelan crude as feedstock.

Today, Pdvsa has a refining capacity of about 1.2 million b/d. It plans to boost its overseas refining capacity to 1.6 million b/d by 2006.

Venezuela, through its Citgo Petroleum Corp. subsidiary, is the largest retailer of gasoline in the U.S. Pdvsa plans to double its investments in the U.S. in 1998 to more than $20 billion, much through Citgo.

By supplying 17% of the U.S. oil, Venezuela is the largest supplier of oil to the U.S. It slipped past Saudi Arabia, which has lost half of its pre-Gulf War market share.

In 1996, for the first time, the majority of oil imports in the Western Hemisphere also originated from the Western Hemisphere. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, a 54% level of self sufficiency was achieved in 1996 vs. 49% in 1995. Venezuela, Mexico, and Canada are the primary sources of imported oil in the Western Hemisphere, mainly to the U.S.

Pdvsa is ignoring OPEC quotas and increasing pricing pressure on the U.S. Gulf Coast marketplace. This controversial strategy is upsetting some relationships.

Pdvsa is securing outlets for crude sales and is investing in the Caribbean for more flexible storage with direct access to the U.S. retail markets. The product markets of Latin and South America are also of interest to Pdvsa.

Mexico

Mexico is the world's sixth-largest crude producer. Current Mexico oil production is about 3.24 million b/d.

Of the nearly 1.6 million b/d of crude exported, nearly 1.3 million b/d is Mayan crude. Nearly 80% of the export total is destined for the U.S. marketplace. Petr?leos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico's national oil company, is increasingly reliant on foreign refineries (through strategic alliances) to process its incremental Mayan crude and return gasoline for domestic use. Nearly 50% of the production is heavy Mayan-grade (27° API) crude.

Mexico's 1.5 million b/d refining capacity, consisting of six refineries, is the largest in Latin America. Its refineries are under severe pressure to move from leaded to unleaded gasoline and also to meet the increased gasoline demand and more stringent quality, especially in the valley surrounding Mexico City. The inability to meet product growth and the changing demand patterns have resulted in increased imports of gasoline, notably from the U.S. and Venezuela.

Mexico's economy is presently experiencing its fastest growth in 16 years with a GDP of 8.8% in 1997. The oil industry contributed about 42% to government income during the first half of 1997.

Pemex plans to spend $25 billion on a 3-year investment program. Of the $8 billion slated for 1998, the refining sector will account for $3.2 billion. The refining sector is emphasizing upgrades of existing facilities to process more Mayan crude and produce clean transportation fuels.

Europe

The medium-complexity refining industry in Western Europe is, like the U.S., suffering from narrow margins as a result of excess refining capacity. Losses plagued the industry in the 1995-1997 period. Refining capacity consolidation in Western Europe will continue in a similar path to the U.S. refining industry.

Mobil believes that investment opportunities are better in the Asia/Pacific and Latin America regions than in Western Europe. The 105,000 b/d Mobil facility in Woerth, Germany, is the only sizable European shutdown since the closure of Kuwait Petroleum Corp.'s 100,000 b/d facility in Naples, Italy, in 1993.

Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum Co. plc are also scrutinizing their refining operations in Europe.

European clean fuels

In the area of clean transportation fuels, Europe's Auto/Oil Study Program is addressing auto performance and environmental mandates. Unleaded gasoline in Western Europe represents about 55% of the gasoline market. The proposed European RFG program is focusing on reduced sulfur content, benzene levels, and NOx emissions.

Western Europe is largely a gas-oil marketplace. Excess gasoline production is typically routed to the northeastern sector of the U.S. Most European refinery capital expenditures today are spent on regulatory requirements, the cost to stay in business.

The Former Soviet Union

The Russian refining sector needs massive capital infusion to stabilize the industry. Russian refineries are marked by obsolescence, poor conditions of equipment, overstaffing, and limited resources.

Production has plummeted nearly 50% from a level of about 11.2 million b/d in the mid-1980s to 6.9 million b/d today. Of that total, about 3 million b/d is exported. In comparison, the production rate in the U.S. is about 6.6 million b/d.

There are 28 refineries in the FSU, plus 12 other oil "processing" plants. The average refinery utilization is a meager 60%, with serious logistical concerns.

In the past, the Russian refining industry has not operated with a "free market" pricing basis, and the government received priority over industry requirements. There has been some optimism lately with signs of economic recovery. Russian management seems more market-oriented, more understanding of the western requirements for return on capital.

Middle East

Although OPEC's share of the world oil market is shrinking, the Middle East maintains its premier crude and product supply status via its export-oriented facilities. Table 4 [6,971 bytes] shows the region's abundant hydrocarbon resources.

The Middle East remains a source of refining projects. Refining capacity is expected to increase by 12.6% by the year 2001. The Middle East is also expanding into the large consumer marketplaces by strategic alliances within the U.S., Western Europe, and the Asia/Pacific region. The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (Oapec) predicts world oil demand, which is presently 67 million b/d, will rise about 8 million b/d by the year 2000.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) has less than 1.5% of the world's population, but it is a large player in the global energy marketplace.

The total refining capacity of the GCC was 1.7 million b/d in 1980, compared to 3.1 million b/d in 1995, and 4.0 million b/d is projected for 2010. The average GCC refinery has a complexity index of 5.2 (Kuwait has the highest complexity) and a crude distillation nameplate capacity of 182,000 b/d. For the world, the average complexity index is 5.9, and the average crude distillation capacity is 105,000 b/d. Conversion units are being added to increase refining complexity in the region.

About half of the refined products produced by the 17 regional refineries are exported, mainly to the Asia/Pacific region. Of the total refining capacity in the region, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait contribute 53% and 27%, respectively.

The design capacity product slate for the region includes gasoline (11.8 wt %), naphtha (10.2 wt %), kerosine/jet fuel (12.3 wt %), gas oil (27.9 wt %), and fuel oil (28.8 wt %). The balance is made up of miscellaneous products.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, with a production capability of about 10 million b/d, exports nearly 90% of its production. It is the world's leading oil exporter and controls about 26%, or 261.4 billion bbl, of the global reserves. By comparison, the U.S. controls 22.4 billion bbl of world oil reserves, which are estimated at nearly 1,022 trillion bbl.

Saudi Arabia's strategic objective is to minimize revenue fluctuations of hydrocarbon income. It strategically plans to route 50% of its production to the downstream sector. Currently, 3.2 million b/d of its 8.0 million b/d production capacity is destined for Saudi domestic and international refining operations. The balance of the production capacity is sold to other refiners.

Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil company and sixth largest refiner, with foreign interests in the U.S., South Korea, Philippines, Greece, and China. Saudi Arabia presently has the most active overseas investment policy of all Middle East producers. It has established good refining and marketing fits with Star Enterprise (U.S.), Petron (Philippines), and Ssangyong (South Korea), and is considering movements into the Japanese and Chinese marketplaces.

Iran, Kuwait, Oman

Iran, with a production level of about 3.6 million b/d, exports nearly 70% of its production. Iran has the largest refining capacity in the region, followed by Saudi Arabia. With its large population, Iran is also a large future energy consumer.

Kuwait, with 96.5 billion bbl of proven oil reserves, has a crude oil production level of 2.2 million b/d and exports about 1.2 million b/d, or 60%. This figure is predicted to increase to 2.5 million b/d by 2000.

The three Kuwait refineries have a refining capacity of about 825,000 b/d. Kuwait has refinery plans for India and retail outlets in Asia. In Europe, KNPC (Kuwait National Petroleum Co.) markets nearly 400,000 b/d through its Q8 stations. Also, nearly 400,000 b/d are marketed through its joint venture activities in Asia (i.e., China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Korea, and Thailand).

In contrast, Oman is bracing for a future without oil. Based on its present reserve status, only 17 years of oil production remain. With a population of about 2 million and an annual budget the size of Los Angeles (i.e., about $4.4 billion/year), Oman is a model of orderly third world development. Once the Arabian peninsula's poorest country, it has become one of the most progressive.

Oapec faces an outlay of almost $20 billion by the year 2010 to upgrade and expand its facilities. With current projects, Arab refining capacity will increase from 5.7 million b/d to about 6 million b/d by the year 2000.

In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., and Bahrain have elected hydrocracking as an integral part of their processing schemes. Kuwait and Qatar, however, have elected FCC as the processing cornerstone of their respective processing configurations.

Political stability and increased non-OPEC production remain regional concerns.

Asian/Pacific region

In contrast to the U.S. and Western Europe, where projects are focusing on emission reduction, the Asia/Pacific region is concentrating on building new refineries to offset demand growth. The region contains about 60% of the world's population but consumes less than 25% of the world's annual oil production. As the region becomes more affluent, it will transform into a major energy consumer.

Excluding Japan, the region's demand for refined products is expected to increase by 7-8 million b/d during 1995-2005, namely as a result of deficits in gas oil and LPG. Postponements, however, are possible as a result of financial, political, and regulatory uncertainties.

Regional gasoline consumption is expected to increase from about 2.7 million b/d to nearly 3.7 million b/d by the year 2000. The demand for gas oil in the region is forecast to soar from about 4.8 million b/d in 1994 to nearly 6.3 million b/d by the year 2000.

During the Asia/Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference of August 1997, it was predicted that the Asia/Pacific region requires an investment of $1.6 trillion in energy infrastructure, inclusive of pipelines, refineries, and power plants, over the next 15 years.

During the 1998-2000 timeframe, 1.3 million b/d of additional refining capacity is planned, with another 5 million b/d of new capacity proposed during the 2000-2005 period. Of the 5 million b/d, India and China will be responsible for 1.4 and 1.3 million b/d of new capacity, respectively.

Energy imports/exports

By 2010, energy imports and gas demand will more than double in the region, surpassing the demand in Europe by a factor of two. The Asia/Pacific region is projected to dethrone North America as the world's largest oil consumer by the turn of the century in terms of crude throughput, although not in terms of complexity.

Significant imports of gas oil and naphtha into the region are primarily sourced from the Middle East, with occasional shipments from Western Europe. Naphtha and gas oil also compete as feedstock to ethylene plants in the region.

After peaking, Asian crude production capacity is declining. China and Indonesia will become net importers. The Asian crude slate will have about 1.14 wt % sulfur content by the year 2000, similar to that of a light Middle East crude slate (Oman and Murban).

Diverse environmental standards

The Asia/Pacific region is characterized by great diversity in the environmental standards for petroleum products. The standards are related largely to country-specific levels of income. Japan is the regional environmental pacesetter, followed by Australia and New Zealand. South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand consume only unleaded gasoline. The environmental regional laggards are China and India.

The region is phasing lead out of gasoline and sulfur out of gas oil and boiler-plant fuel oil.

Asian economics

The Asia/Pacific regional economics have been under review lately due to the recent financial crisis. The high risk, highly leveraged financial economies have been impacted by dollar-dominated feedstock prices and poor product demand. The last such occurrence was in Mexico in late 1994 and 1995.

To date, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has brokered more than $114 billion worth of rescue packages for the economies hardest hit by the financial crisis, namely, for South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand. Some project money is presently moving from Asia to Latin America and the Middle East due to the currency crisis and related uncertainty.

The cause of currency and stock market declines in the region is concern of possible overextension of local banks in a region of fast-paced construction. Regional project finances will be under closer scrutiny by international lenders as a result of the crisis.

Singapore

Singapore is presently the swing or "merchant" refining center in the Asia/Pacific region; however, South Korea is emerging as the East Asian swing refining center. Unfortunately, like Japan, South Korea depends almost entirely on crude imports. Japan is the largest refiner in the region, and China has the greatest demand for petroleum products.

Singapore, with a refining capacity of 1.1 million b/d, is the world's third largest concentrated global refining center, trailing the U.S. Gulf Coast and Rotterdam. The crude slate is predominantly Middle East in origin, with about 25% inclusion of Asian light-sweet crude.

Singapore is the leading refined products exporter in Asia, and regional product pricing formulas are often referenced here. South Korea and Thailand, however, are steadily expanding into the export marketplace. The Singapore spot market for gas oil recently fell to an 8-year low, driven by poor regional economic demand.

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The Author