Continued growth in Southeast Asian demand for oil products is expected to cause a near-term boom in global seaborne products trade.
Petroleum product volumes carried by tanker are expected to rise by 21.8% to 643 million metric tons in 2000.
This is the forecast of Ocean Shipping Consultants Ltd., Chertsey, U.K., which predicts a more stable period during 2000-05, when global products tanker trade volumes will fall 0.6% to 639 million metric tons.
Vessel demand is set to grow even faster than trade volumes, said OSC, because of an increase in relative significance of long haul trades.
Vessels larger than 40,000 dwt are expected to account for almost half of tanker trade by 2005.
"The outlook for the products tanker fleet is one of continued expansion," said OSC, "with annual growth slowing in the early part of next decade. Growth will be most notable in the 40,000 dwt-plus classes, with overall expansion of about 39% as against the 13.9% growth for the smaller vessel sectors."
OSC said worldwide refining capacity development is set to be dominated by developments in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Southeast Asia's refining capacity has expanded by 60% since 1980, and a further 20% increase is anticipated.
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