Seven western U.S. states will become dependent on oil imports as Alaskan production declines during the next decade, says a study by Bruce Wilson, a fuels and transportation economist in Arlington, Va.
His forecast, prepared for the Coalition for American Energy Security (CAES), predicts that without a major new oil discovery in Alaska, the Pacific Coast states again will become largely dependent on imported oil by 2010, when imports will account for 66% of their supplies.
The study notes that in the mid-1970s Alaskan North Slope (ANS) production replaced similar grade oil from the Persian Gulf at West Coast refineries. But Prudhoe Bay field production peaked in 1989 and is due to drop dramatically by the end of the decade.
After North Slope production began to decline, falling output was at first offset by reduced shipments to the eastern U.S. But when reduced ANS production hits the West Coast in earnest, the decline will be absorbed mainly by California, Hawaii, and, to a lesser degree, Washington.
IMPORT DEPENDENCE
Wilson's study says ANS crude will be replaced by Persian Gulf oil because they are similar chemically, and refineries can switch to Arab light without incurring more capital expenses.
California, Nevada, and western Arizona will be 50% dependent on imported oil by 2000, and Washington-Oregon will be 66% dependent by then.
Hawaii will become totally dependent on non-U.S. oil by 1996. That state currently receives 50,000 b/d of oil from Alaska, or 38% of its supplies.
The paper noted ANS crude has not been widely used in Hawaii because the two refineries there are geared to process high gravity, low sulfur, imported crude that is well suited for Hawaii's petroleum product mix-jet fuel accounts for 44% of total requirements-and there are stiff sulfur emission rules.
The report is the first in a series of regional oil import dependence studies being prepared for CAES, which was formed to push for leasing of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coastal Plain. Its members include oil companies and associations, as well as other groups.
Isabelle Tapia, CAES executive director, said, "The message of this report stands clear: America needs a national energy policy that increases domestic oil supplies by opening areas such as the Coastal Plain of Alaska. Without a reliable supply of domestically produced oil, our country will grow dangerously dependent on foreign oil."
Copyright 1991 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.
