Gasoline volatility reductions expected from passage of the Clean Air Act (CAA) amendments will reduce U.S. demand for normal butane by an estimated 159,000 b/d by 1992.
But long term demand for normal butane and isobutane will increase substantially because of gasoline reformulation, a study of natural gas liquids markets by Bonner & Moore Associates Inc., Houston, says.
Increasing capacity for dehydrogenating isobutane to produce more isobutylene, a primary feedstock for methyl tertiary butyl ether, will drive up isobutane demand. By 1993, Bonner & Moore said, dehydrogenation of isobutane will produce about 84,000 b/d of isobutylene, up from 8,000 b/d this year.
Isobutane also is a feedstock for alkylation processes, a way to achieve another CAA requirement: reduced gasoline Reed vapor pressure.
Demand for normal butane will increase as more is isomerized to meet growing demand for isobutane, Bonner & Moore said.
The study found the push to increase supplies of isobutane will increase normal butane prices, forcing refiners to buy more ethane and propane and driving up demand for all NGL.
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