GUSTAVSON ASSESSES E. EUROPE'S PROSPECTS

July 30, 1990
An analysis by Gustavson Associates, Boulder, Colo., shows a variety of geologic conditions and prospects in countries that once made up the so-called eastern bloc. Here is a country by country summary of Gustavson's findings in eastern Europe: Albania is rich in natural resources, especially chromite, oil, and gas. It has far greater petroleum reserves for its size than any other country in eastern Europe.

An analysis by Gustavson Associates, Boulder, Colo., shows a variety of geologic conditions and prospects in countries that once made up the so-called eastern bloc.

Here is a country by country summary of Gustavson's findings in eastern Europe:

ALBANIA

Albania is rich in natural resources, especially chromite, oil, and gas. It has far greater petroleum reserves for its size than any other country in eastern Europe.

Albania is the most politically isolated nation in Europe and one of the most xenophobic countries in the world. Long ruled by the repressive dictator Enver Hoxha, Albania is still a Stalinist Communist state.

The nation consists of three main geologic provinces. Strongly folded late Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata comprise the subelagonian and Pelagonian massifs in Northeast Albania. Slightly folded Mesozoic and Cenozoic rocks form an extension of the Yugoslavian Dinarides (Albanides) in the center of Albania.

Coastal basins filled with Tertiary and Quaternary sediments are located in western Albania. These basins, including the Durres basin, produce hydrocarbons. The search for oil and gas in the future is likely to be concentrated in these coastal basins and in the relatively shallow waters of the Adriatic Sea.

Hydrocarbons have been trapped in anticlines and tilt-ed fault blocks, mainly in lenticular sandstones of the upper Miocene and in Helvetian (Tortonian) limestones. Detailed maps, cross sections, and field summaries for Albanian oil and gas occurrences are not available.

Exploration for stratigraphic and other nonstructural traps is thought to be in its infancy and may represent the best potential for discoveries onshore. Albania's greatest oil and gas potential probably is in the Albanian shelf of the Durres basin, offshore.

Hydrocarbon exploration and production has continued since the early 20th century, with essentially all activity since 1948 under the control of the national government and its Soviet, later Chinese, allies.

Cumulative production figures are not published officially, and western estimates of annual production rates vary widely.

Albania has expressed little desire to open up for international exploration, especially by U.S. companies. European companies may have an advantage in this arena, due partly to established diplomatic and commercial relations with the Albanian government.

If Albania is opened to western investment in the petroleum sector, there is little doubt that modern seismic techniques and the deliberate search for subtle stratigraphic traps may be expected to lead to substantial reserve additions.

BULGARIA

Bulgaria is not particularly well endowed with oil and gas resources. The country is heavily dependent on imports from the Soviet Union to meet its requirements.

Although oil production has been relatively stable in recent years, reserves have dropped steadily to about 13 million bbl. Gas production has dropped dramatically since 1980, but reserves have held constant at about 173 bcf.

Bulgaria's oil industry has been active since 1954 when oil was discovered along the northeast coast. Eight years later, the Dolni Dabnik field discovery was made. This field is still the country's largest oil producer, accounting for most of the 2.2 million bbl/year Bulgaria produces. Imports account for about 90% of oil and gas consumption.

All of the commercially producible hydrocarbon resources discovered in the country have been found within the Moesian platform of northern Bulgaria. Most oil and gas fields are associated with two structural features on the platform, the Lom depression and the Varna trough. Discoveries are possible where the Moesian platform and especially the Varna trough extend into the Black Sea.

A more favorable political and commercial climate now exists in Bulgaria, and a joint venture system is in place to accommodate foreign investment. At least one Black Sea seismic data package is available for purchase from a U.S. company.

CZECHOSLOVAKIA

Czechoslovakia, with relatively minor oil and gas reserves, has not historically been a major producer of hydrocarbons. The country relies heavily on imports of oil and gas from the Soviet Union.

It produces only about 3,000 b/d of oil and has reserves of about 19 million bbl. Most oil production comes from one field: Gbely in the Vienna basin.

Gas reserves in Czechoslovakia are estimated to be about 330 bcf.

The Vienna basin, a Tertiary pull-apart basin in the Alpine-Carpathian overthrust belt, has been the site of most hydrocarbon production in Czechoslovakia. The largest oil field in the country is in this basin. Shallow oil has been produced in Gbely field since 1913 from Miocene sandstones in a locally faulted anticline. This hydrocarbon accumulation still accounts for about half of Czechoslovakia's oil production.

The opportunity for significant increases in Czechoslovakia's oil and gas reserves is slight.

In spite of the country's poor prospects for major new hydrocarbon discoveries, liberalization of joint venture laws is currently taking place. This move will make foreign investment in extraction industries more attractive.

EAST GERMANY

East Germany has very little oil reserves but is the richest East European country in gas reserves, mostly in Salzwedel-Peckensen field. The country imports 99% of its oil and 65% of its gas. Oil production and reserves have declined during the last 10 years.

The country has been somewhat well explored from an oil standpoint.

Gas production and reserves also have declined since the mid-1980s. The country has had only one giant gas discovery, in 1968.

Large structures or reservoirs are not likely to be found. The potential for deeper or stratigraphic traps is fair but not encouraging from a reserve viewpoint.

The business climate in East Germany likely will be progressive, pending unification with West Germany. Early indications are that West Germany may supply the bulk of the aid, at least at first.

Nevertheless, there should be ample opportunity for western countries to joint venture or to export technology and equipment.

East Germany's energy resource scenario is likely to benefit from an influx of modern technology and funding aimed at developing and producing gas reserves.

HUNGARY

The nation's main geologic feature is the Pannonian basin, a large Neogene feature consisting of several small, deep subbasins separated by shallow basement blocks. Extensional and strike-slip deformation are characteristic.

Rapid Miocene and Pliocene sedimentation deposited thick deltaic and lacustrine sandstone reservoirs. Hydrocarbon source rocks and seals are thick Neogene shales that are relatively low in organic content.

The geothermal gradient is unusually high, and most preMiocene strata are postmature.

Not unexpectedly, a recent deep drilling program with assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey had negative results, and the potential of any deep hydrocarbon reserves is remote.

Hydrocarbons have been trapped in compactional anticlines associated with basement highs, mainly in Pannonian (Miocene-Pliocene) reservoirs. Significant production has also been obtained from Mesozoic carbonates and fractured metamorphic basement rocks.

Exploration for stratigraphic and other nonstructural traps is in its infancy and represents the best potential for discoveries.

Hydrocarbon exploration and production has continued since the 1930s, with all activity since the mid-1950s under the control of the national oil company, Hungarian National Oil & Gas Trust (OKGT).

Cumulative production is about 486 million bbl and 4.5 tcf of gas.

OKGT recently estimated undiscovered recoverable resources at 274 million bbl and 5.5 tcf.

The Pannonian basin is well explored for hydrocarbons, but state of the art seismic techniques and the search for subtle stratigraphic traps may be expected to lead to substantial reserve additions.

On an international scale the geologic favorability of exploration in Hungary is only fair, mainly because of the lack of any large unexplored structures, secondarily because of the high geothermal gradient.

In contrast, the investment favorability of Hungary is average to good because of the national desire for international oil company participation in exploration/production as seen against the current background of political normalization.

A date of Dec. 31, 1989, for publication of a new concession law was announced originally.

In addition to risk contracts with OKGT, private, Hungarian-owned exploration/production ventures outside of OKGT have been officially suggested.

POLAND

Poland has limited oil and gas resources. It imports more than 98% of its oil and 52% of its gas, mainly from the Soviet Union.

Although a considerable portion of the country has been explored, no large accumulations have been found.

Deeper and more subtle accumulations probably exist, which will provide Poland the opportunity to sustain its meager oil and gas production. However, it is unlikely Poland will ever be able to produce significant amounts of oil and gas.

What is known of the geology of Poland does not justify an overly optimistic outlook for oil and gas exploration in regard to large or giant discoveries.

Poland has a long history of oil production. Peak production occurred in the early 1900s, and discoveries are not keeping pace with current production. Oil fields have typically been very small.

Prospects for gas are somewhat better than oil.

Gas has been produced in Poland only since 1950. Production of gas jumped tenfold in 1970.

Poland produces almost half of its gas demand. However, this accounts for only 8% of its total energy supply.

More gas reserves are certain to be found in deeper, undrilled horizons and sparsely explored regions of the country.

Poland's oil and gas industry, years behind world standards, will benefit greatly from western technology and equipment. Emphasis will be placed on improving petroleum exploration, development, and production as Poland's new leaders set priorities in an autonomous and non-Communist eastern Europe.

Poland appears to be very receptive to the western world. Recent agreements should encourage exports of technology, money, and equipment to Poland.

Poland recognizes its shortcomings in modern petroleum exploration and development and will attempt to bolster these areas by inviting foreign participation. Unfortunately, the country's petroleum resources are not sufficient to totally fulfill its current demand-nor will they ever be.

ROMANIA

Romania has historically been an important oil producer. The country holds about 80% of eastern Europe's oil reserves, or about 1.6 billion bbl.

Romania's oil production has been falling, however, since the mid-1970s. But refinery capacity has expanded, resulting in the need for imports to maintain even 50% capacity utilization.

A substantial amount of oil is imported from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for the most part and from the Soviet Union. This fact, coupled with rapidly growing demand for energy, has been a major constraint on Romanian economic development.

Romania's other main source of domestic energy, natural gas, is being rapidly depleted. Reserves are not expected to last much beyond 1995.

Romania has oil and gas reserves of more than 1.5 billion bbl and 4 tcf. Since the mid-1970s, however, oil production has been steadily on the decline, creating a need to import about 30% of the petroleum the country consumes.

Three areas are considered to be the most important for exploration: the Black Sea, deep structures on the Moesian platform, and subtle stratigraphic traps in the eastern pre-Carpathian depression. Foreign cooperation in the form of joint ventures is being sought by the Romanian government in these areas.

YUGOSLAVIA

Yugoslavia has been a producer of oil for more than 100 years. Gas production has been under way for nearly as long.

Although crude production and reserves have declined in recent years, estimated 1988 reserves are about 211 million bbl. Gas reserves have increased since 1980 and are estimated at about 3 tcf. Yugoslavia imports about 75% of the oil it consumes and about 60% of the gas.

Gas holds the country's best hope for future production. The largest gas field, Molve, should provide one third of all domestic gas production. Recent gas discoveries in the Adriatic Sea have helped bolster reserves.

Most hydrocarbons have come from the southern margin of the greater Pannonian depression. Several small, deep subbasins filled with Neogene deltaic and lacustrine sediments provide source rocks, reservoirs, and seals for dozens of oil and gas fields.

Gas fields have been discovered in the northern Adriatic Sea. Drilling farther south in the Adriatic has yielded hydrocarbon shows and some discoveries of questionable commercial value.

A favorable political and commercial climate exists in Yugoslavia, where joint venture systems are already in place. Several U.S. oil companies and foreign groups have been evaluating offshore blocks for a few years.

Copyright 1990 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.