Tension before a May 19 presidential election helps explain another delay in international oil and gas licensing offered under a new contract in Iran.
The four presidents preceding incumbent Hassan Rouhani won reelection to second terms, and Iran watchers expect the pattern to hold.
Rouhani is unpopular with religious hard-liners, who are unpopular with most Iranians but control the country anyway.
But Rouhani can't take reelection for granted. He won in 2013 promising to free Iran from international sanctions. Although he succeeded, the economy has not fulfilled popular hope, largely because of suppressed oil prices.
Ruling theocrats apparently sense opportunity in Iranian disappointment.
Ebrahim Raisi, one of their hard-line stalwarts, has emerged as Rouhani's main challenger.
He's now custodian of Astan Qods Razavi, a powerful entity that runs an important shrine and controls a business empire. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appointed him to the position last year.
Raisi also is a member of the Assembly of Experts, which chooses and oversees the supreme leader. He is seen as a possible successor of Khamenei, who is ill.
But Raisi's allure with voters suffers from revelations about his service on a commission in the late 1980s that issued execution orders for thousands of prisoners.
And since Raisi announced his candidacy, former President Mahmoud Ahmadenijad has entered the race.
The stridently anti-Western Ahmadenijad would divert hard-line support from Raisi.
Like all presidential hopefuls, though, he must win approval of the Guardian Council, half the members of which were appointed by Khamenei.
Because Ahmadenijad is running against stated wishes of the supreme leader, rejection of his candidacy seems likely. If forbidden to run, the former president might urge supporters to back Rouhani.
Meanwhile, a licensing round originally scheduled for last October awaits review of the new Iran Petroleum Contract by the Supreme National Security Council, members of which know an election impends.
Prospective foreign bidders troubled by the uncertainty of always-murky Iranian politics might deem a further wait until, say, May 20 accommodating.
(From the subscription area of www.ogj.com, posted Apr. 13, 2017; author's e-mail: [email protected])