Surging populism and the related perils for trade are damping expectations for global economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund lists "political discord and inward-looking policies" among threats to assumptions underlying its latest forecast of world output.
In this month's edition of its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, IMF projects global growth of 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2017, compared with 3.2% in 2015.
In April, IMF projected growth of 3.2% this year and 3.5% in 2017.
The lowered growth rates depend on:
• Gradual normalization of conditions in economies under stress, including those of commodity exporters.
• Gradual slowdown and rebalancing of China's economy with medium-term growth rates higher than the average for emerging-market and developing economies.
• Resilient growth in other emerging-market and developing economies.
Those are what IMF sees as threatened by, among other things, protectionism.
"The Brexit vote and the ongoing US presidential election campaign have highlighted a fraying consensus about the benefits of cross-border economic integration," IMF notes. "Concerns about the impact of foreign competition on jobs and wages in a context of weak growth have enhanced the appeal of protectionist policy approaches, with potential ramifications for global trade flows and integration more broadly."
In addition, concern about unequal income distribution strengthens as incomes stagnate.
IMF worries that consequent uncertainties will encourage companies to defer investment and hiring, "thus slowing near-term activity while an inward-looking policy shift could also stoke further cross-border political discord."
The chief economist of Fitch Ratings expresses similar worry in a statement accompanying release of his firm's bimonthly Global Economic Outlook, which underscores "downside risks" to economic growth in advanced countries.
"The rise in populism seen in many advanced countries could be a precursor to increased trade protectionism and growing fragmentary tensions in the eurozone, both of which would increase uncertainty and damage prospects for private-sector investment," warns Brian Coulton.
Populism is hazardous to economic growth, the main driver of oil demand. Oil producers anxious about the price of crude should not welcome it.