Determining the Asian Pacific's energy demand potential doesn't look difficult initially. Its economic growth is relatively strong, so it could be substantial. Pinning down what countries there actually will do is much harder, experts suggested at a May 14 Atlantic Council discussion.
"Pacific Asians get about 70% of Gulf Middle East oil exports. It's also driving global demand growth," said Robert A. Manning, a senior fellow at the Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security. "Several countries face energy problems. Japan isn't likely to restart most of its nuclear reactors. China and India, which didn't start importing LNG until about 10 years ago, are ramping up their commitments."
While trade is growing among the region's countries, the US oil and gas renaissance still is a major export opportunity, Manning said. "Many people I talk with in Pacific Asian countries look forward to buying US oil and gas. It will provide reassurance to everyone there."
Edward C. Chow, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, noted, "It may not have been noticed much in the US, but last year China passed this country as the world's largest net oil importer." China's increasingly heavy footprint on gas imports will have the same impact its heavy crude demand did, Chow predicted.
But the situation there is unsettled, Chow said. "It's wrapped up in state-owned energy reform. There's a widespread campaign against corruption, with the oil sector right in the middle. The question is how much political control the government will be willing to let go and let commercial decisions begin to be made," he said.
While Japan and South Korea share several specific problems, they also have a common interest in securing supplies so they won't be vulnerable to interruptions, observed Van Jackson, a visiting fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
'The Asian paradox'
"There's a widely shared common interest, which could lead to pursuing a common energy structure," Jackson said. "There's also the Asian paradox-a combination of warm commercial relations and cool political stands, allowing trade to flourish while rivalries grow. Consequently, no love being lost between countries trumps their potential mutual interests."
Southeast Asia is sometimes overlooked, maintained Meredith Miller, National Bureau of Asian Research's senior vice-president of trade, economic, and energy affairs. "It has continued to show positive economic growth, which has translated into strong energy demand," she said. "By 2035, Southeast Asia will be the fourth largest oil importer in the world."
Dependence on Middle East oil will make a lot of people there look hard at what the US does with crude exports, Miller said.