Oil supplies from countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are forecast to decline by 300,000 b/d in 2016, after an increase of 1.1 million b/d in 2015, according to the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration. This would be the first annual decline in non-OPEC production since 2008, EIA said. In last month's STEO, non-OPEC output was forecast to rise 100,000 b/d in 2016.
"The shift in expectation from non-OPEC production growth to declines in 2016 is mostly because of lower expected growth in Canada and larger expected declines in US onshore production," EIA said. Production growth in Canada is expected to average 100,000 b/d in both 2015 and 2016-levels that are 100,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d, respectively, lower than in last month's forecast.
"The reduction in forecast growth in Canada reflects persistently low oil prices resulting in announced delays or cancellations of projects previously scheduled to come online during the forecast period, including Shell's October announcement canceling the 80,000 b/d Camron Creek project," EIA said (OGJ Online, Oct. 28, 2015).
OPEC crude oil production is forecast to rise 900,000 b/d in 2015, led by production increases in Iraq, and to increase 200,000 b/d in 2016, with Iran forecast to increase production once international sanctions targeting its oil sector are suspended. EIA estimates that OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.1 million b/d in 2014.
In this month's STEO, EIA expects global oil consumption to rise 1.4 million b/d in both 2015 and 2016, vs. a growth of 1.2 million b/d in 2014.
Consumption in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development rose 1.4 million b/d in 2014 and is projected to rise 800,000 b/d in 2015 and 1.2 million b/d in 2016. After falling 300,000 b/d in 2014, OECD petroleum and other liquids consumption is expected to rise 600,000 b/d in 2015 and 200,000 b/d in 2016, reaching an average of 46.5 million b/d-the highest annual average level of OECD consumption since 2010.
