The risk is obvious when a Washington forum notice says it will try to get "beyond rhetoric." So much of what passes for discussion here depends on supporting a position with tried-and-true slogans and rigorously staying "on-message."
It's understandable, then, that the American Security Project did not entirely succeed on July 30 at its event entitled "Beyond Rhetoric: How the US Can Help Enhance European Energy Security" when speakers focused on LNG exports. Much of what they said was not new. Some was, because it involved the Baltic States, principally Lithuania.
"We are fighting for a market economy for energy," said Zygimantas Pavilionis, the country's ambassador to the US. "Restraining the flow of your resources to global markets is not in the America tradition."
Lithuania will open the first Baltic coast LNG import terminal on Oct. 27, and would welcome shipments from the US as an alternative to imports from Russia, Pavilionis said. "Latvia has decided to move ahead and build a terminal too," he said, adding, "It has a good supplier in Statoil."
The three countries, which also include Estonia, aren't a major market compared with China or India, Pavilionis conceded. Their projected 3 billion cu m/year of gas demand is relatively small, but the economics for US suppliers are favorable.
"The most expensive contract to ship LNG from Louisiana would be two thirds of what we pay Russia," Pavilionis said. "Merely saying we're building an LNG import terminal made Gazprom lower its prices. We could use a visionary statement from the US."
Much more is involved, two other speakers argued. The US government's long-time support for constructing a southern gas pipeline from the Caspian Sea to European markets clearly helped, said Robin Dunnigan, acting deputy secretary for energy diplomacy in the US Department of State's Bureau of Energy Resources. The US shale boom could make the US a net gas exporter in 2 years, she said.
Getting permits, financing
LNG export installations not only need to secure a wide range of government permits but also are expensive and have to be financed, added Charles D. McConnell, executive director of the Rice University Energy and Environment Initiative.
"The rest of the world faces clear and present dangers too," McConnell said, adding, "We're sort of pushing things along but not telling our friends what we have in mind. Meanwhile, ships have to be bought, terminals built, and contracts signed."
This all takes time, the panelists agreed. Meanwhile, events are moving more quickly in Eastern Europe than the US political schedule recognizes. "There's no single answer," McConnell said. "If you think you have one, be careful—because you probably don't."
