Policy vs. oil supply

A rough collision of oil supply and energy policy looms by implication in the US Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook. The AEO projects the tantalizing possibility of a US dependent on no other country, not even Canada, for any of the crude or oil products it needs beginning in the latter half of the 2030s. That would be historic. The US has been a net oil importer since the 1940s. If current tendencies of energy policy remain in place, that won't change. Already, most long-term forecasts see net-exporter status for North America in the 2030s. Those views assume continued growth in production from the Canadian oil sands, with most of the incremental supply flowing to ...

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