Reykjavik's heated sidewalks

Jan. 13, 2014
The recent cold snap in Houston—with temperatures dipping into the mid-20s in parts of the city for a stretch of nights—made miserable several mornings' walks from the parking garage to the OGJ office building doors.

The recent cold snap in Houston—with temperatures dipping into the mid-20s in parts of the city for a stretch of nights—made miserable several mornings' walks from the parking garage to the OGJ office building doors. Luckily, there was no call for precipitation on those days, for if there were, it would have fallen as snow or sleet or some other god-awful transportation hazard, making the trek in that much more wretched.

(Note: Those readers located north of Houston, this writer realizes, cannot easily empathize with this scenario, but considering that nowhere in this city can one even find for purchase so much as an ice-scraper for their automobile—well, you get the picture.)

Visitors to Iceland's largest city of Reykjavik on a similarly frigid day, writes Pavel Molchanov, analyst with Raymond James & Associates Inc., in a recent energy brief about renewables, would discover that the city's sidewalks are actually heated. "Yes, Iceland has such abundance of cheap geothermal power that it can even heat its sidewalks," the Energy Stat energy brief begins.

(Intrigued now—or perhaps just seeking news about warmth—this frozen editor reads on.)

"Now let's suppose you travel south, to Spain," Molchanov writes. "Depending on how long you're there, there is a decent chance that on at least one of those days Spain would cover a majority of its power demand with wind power."

The lesson learned from these two case studies, Molchanov states, is that "renewable power penetration can reach exceptionally high levels—garnering plenty of headlines—1. in places with small population, and/or 2. within narrowly defined timeframes."

What Molchanov discovered in his analysis was that the penetration, or percentage share of the actual addressable market, of certain renewables reached double-digit ranges more commonly than one would have first thought.

Using data from 2012, the analyst compiled the list using two central criteria: countries or states and provinces with populations greater than 5 million people and a timeframe of a full calendar year, "thereby eliminating seasonal fluctuations."

The countries with the highest penetration of emerging energy technologies were found to be: Brazil, biofuels, 54%; Pakistan, natural gas vehicles, 36%; Denmark, wind, 30%; the Philippines, geothermal, 17%; Italy, solar photovoltaics, 6.7%; and Norway, electric vehicles, 0.3%.

Renewables highlights

Molchanov offered the following details:

• Biofuels. "The reason Brazil has such high blends is twofold. First, the government mandates blends of around 20% for ordinary gasoline engines…. Second, Brazil has a far higher proportion of flex-fuel vehicles (which can run on 85% ethanol blends)."

• Natural gas vehicles. About 36% of Pakistan's total onroad vehicles run on natural gas—"by far the highest proportion in the world (even though, in recent years, Pakistan has been running out of gas—literally)."

• Wind power. "While Denmark's 30% wind power penetration is indeed very high, it is by no means the only country that's in the double digits: Germany, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal are all between 10% and 20%. The world average is near 3%, with the US a bit above that."

• Geothermal power. The Philippines stands out, although it is surpassed by a few very small countries like Costa Rica and Iceland. "Put another way, the Philippines has around two thirds of US geothermal capacity but less than a third of the population (and a much smaller fraction of power demand)."

• Solar PV. "The solar photovoltaic industry's adoption curve has turned parabolic over the past 5 years, which is why Italy's 6.7% penetration (undoubtedly higher in 2013) was around 1% as recently as 2008."

• Electric vehicles. "Electric vehicle adoption in Europe has exhibited the same characteristics as in the US—in other words, slower than most industry forecasts had envisioned, and for essentially the same reasons (high vehicle prices and limited charging infrastructure)."

Molchanov concludes that "while 100% penetration of emerging energy technologies will not happen anytime soon as a practical matter...it's worth asking whether 100% is possible in certain large markets, even in a theoretical sense."

Message received: Don't waste time waiting on heated sidewalks to become the norm in Houston anytime soon.