Assumptions about the price of oil strongly influence forecasts of oil demand and supply such as Oil & Gas Journal's Midyear Forecast (p. 30). But what influences the price of oil?
The US Energy Information Administration addresses that question in its Energy and Financial Markets Initiative. Its answers are varied and complex.
EIA's analysis covers not only physical fundamentals such as energy consumption, production, inventories, and geopolitical risks but also financial markets, including futures trading, commodity investment, currency-exchange rates, and equity values.
EIA points out that oil trading involves a range of participants with divergent objectives.