Global luke-warming
Blizzard Nemo follows Hurricane Sandy, and drought spreads from the plains to the American Southwest. The year 2012 was the warmest US year on record. The media remind us that extreme weather is a consequence of global warming and that we can expect more such events as the atmosphere warms.
But as to storms, we note that the past 7 years overall has been one of the quietest hurricane periods in the past century. And we should remember storms like the Long Island Express of 1938, which killed 600, and the Midwest's Great Blizzard of 1978. Force 5 Hurricanes Andrew (1972) and Camille (1969), along with others, were much stronger than Sandy. All this was before atmospheric carbon dioxide reached current levels.
Researchers from the US Forest Service, using tree-ring data, have identified six multiyear droughts between 1750 and 1950. All of them were more severe than anything in recent memory because they persisted for years.
We now have data on world 2012 temperatures from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the other world agencies which monitor global temperatures. Our recently warm Lower 48 is less than 2% of the earth's surface. Despite the high temperatures, the average global surface temperature for January–December 2012 was 0.57° C. (1.03° F.) above the 20th century average, but essentially unchanged from average global temperatures in the 2003-12 period. Atmospheric CO2 levels continue to rise, but global temperatures are taking a 10-year breather for reasons that are not well understood. Perhaps we are entering a period of global luke-warming, and adaption will be as effective as the costly mitigation programs that are currently in vogue.
CO2 is a nontoxic gas which resonates with the earth's outgoing infrared (IR) radiation, making it a greenhouse gas (GHG). There are now about 3 trillion tons of it in the earth's atmosphere. CO2 makes plants grow, dough rise, and beverages fizz, and we exhale it.
There is still only one CO2 molecule for every 2,400 molecules in the atmosphere. But when the widely scattered CO2 molecules sense the earth's IR, they go into motion, bumping neighbor nitrogen and oxygen molecules, sending them into motion. The whole atmosphere is jiggled and gets warmer because a product of motion is heat. When you are cold, you instinctively shiver to get warmer. The science is clear, and it suggests that we should be warming as fast as some of the models predict.
Mitigation programs are focused on reducing the burning of carbon-based fossil fuels by substituting renewables like wind, solar, and biofuels. Intermittent and costly wind and solar are not effective as large-scale additions to carefully balanced electric grids. Germany is the poster country for solar energy with a half million rooftop and other solar panel systems. These require $10 billion in annual subsidies. The German Physical Society writes, "Photovoltaics are fundamentally incapable of replacing any other type of power plant."
Essentially, every solar array must be backed up with a conventional power plant as a reserve, creating an expensive double infrastructure. The same is true for variable-output wind turbines.
The US currently uses 40% of its corn and 40 million prime crop acres to produce ethanol, which meets about 6% of its gasoline consumption. The result is increased world grain prices and stresses to soils, groundwater, and the environment from monoculture corn and additional nitrogen fertilizers. A University of Minnesota study showed that on average in the US, 142 gal of water are needed to grow and process the corn for 1 gal of ethanol.
The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act called for the production of 100 million gal of nonfood cellulosic biofuel in 2010, rising in stages to 1 billion gal in 2013. But there is no effective production process for cellulosic or algae biofuel, and the most produced in any year is about 5 million gal, at very high cost.
Undaunted, the Obama administration has awarded $510 million for the construction of cellulosic and algae biofuel production plants for military jet fuel. Using an as-yet mythical production process, these new plants are to supply biofuels to the Navy for a plan known as the Great Green Fleet. The motive is to lessen dependence on countries "that don't share the same values as the United States."
But there is an entirely new reality with US energy production and consumption. New oil and gas supply is emerging, and fossil fuel demand is being reduced by conservation and costs. Oil imports are declining to the point that all US needs may soon be coming from friendly Western Hemisphere sources. US refineries can supply all Department of Defense fuel needs from domestic crude oil.
It's time to join the pause in global luke-warming by pausing in the building of multibillion-dollar renewable energy projects which produce little usable energy. There is time to spend some of the money on research into what is really happening with our climate.
Rolf Westgard
Professional member, Geological Society of America
St. Paul, Minn.
EDITOR'S NOTE: The writer is guest faculty in the University of Minnesota Lifelong Learning program. His next class will cover America's climate and energy future for the next 25 years.
Editorial missed mark
Your editorial "Campaign of polarization" misses the mark for some of us in the oil business (OGJ, Mar. 4, 2013, p. 26).
Since President Ronald Reagan, my income has increased while my tax bracket has decreased. In that period also, the gap between rich and poor has grown to a disgraceful high in the US.
In my volunteer work with nonprofits that serve the poor and handicapped, we have seen devastating cuts in federal, state, and local funding serving those who can not, not those who will not.
There simply is no way the private sector alone can meet this need. I believe the Declaration of Independence addresses this as "provide for the public welfare." And, as a Christian, I am acutely aware of my obligation to "the least of His people," and so this is my priority.
My early mentors in the oil exploration business advised me to look for production that is good enough to be profitable even without tax consequences, which I have done. I cannot justify preferential tax treatment for people like myself.
Alfred James III
Petroleum geologist
Wichita, Kan.
