Surprise and vulnerability

Production of crude oil and lease condensate in the US continues to provide pleasant surprises. It's increasing faster than expected just a year ago, heading for peak rates higher than forecast earlier. Surprises, though, happen in more than one direction. Production can fall quickly, too. In its Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release, the Energy Information Administration last week said it expects production to approach 9.6 million b/d in 2019—the record high rate of 1970. In the same outlook last year, EIA projected 2019 output at 7.5 million b/d. The new forecast, assuming continuation of current laws and regulations, is for production above 7.5 million b/d through 2040. Last year's ...

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