US C3 balances to tighten, prices to rise over winter months

  Dan Lippe Petral Consulting Co. Houston Propane supply-demand balances in US markets are poised to be much tighter in winter 2013 than during winters of 2011 and 2012. Tighter supply-demand balances generally result in rising propane prices–unless crude oil prices decline sharply. Spot propane prices in Mont Belvieu increased 21¢/gal (24%) during second and third quarters 2013 due to the gradual reduction in the inventory surplus. The onset of winter, with forecasts for record high waterborne propane exports, supports Petral Consulting Co.'s forecast for tighter supply-demand balances in fourth-quarter 2013 and first-quarter 2014 and supports forecasts that prices will increas...

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